Zambia Votes Thursday: Five Things to Know About Copper, Debt and Victoria Falls

Zambia, a copper-rich nation of about 22 million people, goes to the polls on Thursday in a presidential election that will test whether incumbent Hakainde Hichilema's economic programs have convinced voters they are working. Hichilema is seeking a second term against a fragmented field of opposition candidates. Below are five key things to know about the country as the vote approaches.

Copper Still Drives the Economy

Zambia is Africa's second-largest copper producer (after the Democratic Republic of Congo) and ranks eighth globally, according to the US Geological Survey. Copper accounts for roughly 70% of the country’s export earnings and is central to economic planning. With demand rising for copper used in electric vehicles, power grids and renewable energy projects, the government has set an ambitious goal to triple annual copper output to three million metric tonnes by 2031. That push has attracted major investors: KoBold Metals — backed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates — broke ground in May on a US$2 billion project expected to become one of Zambia's largest copper mines.

Debt Restructuring and Fiscal Recovery

Zambia was the first African sovereign to default during the Covid era (2020) after years of heavy borrowing and a collapse in commodity revenues. A landmark debt restructuring with official and private creditors unlocked IMF support and helped stabilize public finances. According to a government debt sustainability analysis published in March, public debt was above 90% of GDP in 2025 — down from a 2021 peak of 124.3% — but the country remains at high risk of debt distress.

China Is a Major Creditor and Investor

China is Zambia’s largest bilateral creditor, with about US$4.5 billion owed to Chinese lenders, equivalent to roughly 15% of public and publicly guaranteed debt, the IMF says. Beyond lending, Chinese firms have invested across mining, transport, power and industrial parks. Beijing played a central role in debt-restructuring talks, making Zambia a closely watched example of how Chinese creditors coordinate with Western governments and multilateral institutions. Chinese investment remains vital, even as concerns periodically arise over labour standards, local job creation and the country's reliance on foreign capital.

Politics: A History Of Relative Stability

Since independence from Britain in 1964, Zambia has been seen as one of southern Africa’s more stable democracies, with a record of peaceful transfers of power. Hichilema, a businessman who won the presidency in 2021 on his sixth attempt, has pursued market-friendly reforms, moved to restore investor confidence and abolished the death penalty. Political tensions surfaced over the burial of former president Edgar Lungu, who died on June 5 last year and remains unburied amid disputes between his family and state authorities; a South African court has permitted burial there, a ruling Zambia's government declined to contest.

Victoria Falls and the Tourism Economy

Outside mining, tourism is an important economic pillar. Zambia shares Victoria Falls (Mosi-oa-Tunya, "the smoke that thunders") with Zimbabwe; the falls and surrounding national parks such as South Luangwa and Lower Zambezi are central to the country’s tourism sector and conservation efforts.

Bottom line: The election will test public confidence in Hichilema’s economic agenda as Zambia balances ambitions to scale up copper production with the need to manage debt, diversify the economy and attract sustainable investment.