Poll: About 8-in-10 Independents Say ICE Used Excessive Force — A Midterms Risk For Republicans

New polling suggests that public outrage over high-profile immigration enforcement actions is reshaping voter attitudes and could complicate Republican efforts in tight midterm races.

Poll Results And Context

A YouGov survey of 1,000 registered voters conducted in late July and commissioned by the Vera Institute of Justice found roughly 80% of independent voters say U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has used too much force in its nationwide operations. That is a marked shift from 2025, when independents were more divided on the question.

The survey was carried out days after two separate traffic-stop shootings — one in Biddeford, Maine, that left 26-year-old Colombian national Joan Sebastian Guerrero dead, and another in Houston, Texas, in which 52-year-old Lorenzo Salgado Araujo was killed. An earlier YouGov poll conducted before those incidents already found a majority of independents believing ICE had gone too far (62%). Other recent surveys, including AP-NORC and the Civic Health and Institutions Project, show low independent approval for ICE’s enforcement tactics.

Political Implications

The polling arrives months before the midterm elections, as Republicans try to defend narrow congressional majorities. Several races are expected to be competitive and could be decided by independent voters — a group whose support has become pivotal. Analysts warn that rising disapproval of ICE among independents could force GOP campaigns to recalibrate messaging aimed at centrists.

“This is a big vulnerability,” said Matthew Grossman, a political scientist at Michigan State University. “An issue that [Republicans] had in previous elections is now working to their disadvantage.”

The Department of Homeland Security responded to the controversy by citing a June poll showing 80% of Americans support deporting immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally and have committed crimes. DHS urged cooperation with ICE and praised officers’ work.

Trends, Party Divisions And Voter Priorities

Partisan attitudes remain sharply divided: the YouGov survey shows fewer than two in 10 Republicans say ICE has used excessive force, while about nine in 10 Democrats say the agency went too far. An AP-NORC poll conducted after the July shootings found approval of President Trump’s handling of immigration fell from 49% at the start of his term to 39%, and only about three in 10 adults approved of ICE’s enforcement overall; among independents that approval was just 18%.

Despite backlash to interior enforcement operations, other immigration-related measures remain popular with many voters. Declines in border crossings are viewed as a success by at least half of Americans, and Republicans still hold a general advantage on perceived competence on border security. Voters, however, currently prioritize cost of living, inflation and the economy over immigration in many polls.

Campaign Responses And Outlook

Republican operatives and candidates have largely stuck to staking out tough immigration stances while emphasizing targeted enforcement against criminals and border security successes. Some Trump-backed candidates who support the administration’s enforcement priorities have continued to win primaries. Still, strategists note candidates often moderate rhetoric between primaries and general election campaigns to appeal to a broader electorate.

How much impact the shift in attitudes toward ICE will have on November outcomes remains uncertain. With many districts decided by narrow margins and independents often pivotal, analysts say the issue could be consequential where centrists are decisive.

Reporting note: This article synthesizes publicly reported polling and statements from officials, analysts and campaign spokespeople. Names and poll figures are attributed to sources cited in the reporting.