Recent provisional CDC data show the U.S. age-adjusted death rate in 2025 fell to the lowest level recorded in over a century, continuing a decline that began in 2022. Overall mortality has dropped about 22% since 2021 and U.S. life expectancy reached 79 years in 2024. The life-expectancy gap with OECD peers narrowed in 2024, but persistent structural issues — chronic disease, unequal access to care, violence and overdoses — mean gains are uneven and may be fragile. Sustaining progress will require addressing these systemic problems.
U.S. Death Rate Hits Century Low in 2025, Narrowing Life-Expectancy Gap With Peers
U.S. death rate falls to historic low in 2025.getty
Good news is uncommon in public health, but recent U.S. mortality data offer a clear positive signal. In its provisional mortality report released last month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported that the age-adjusted death rate in 2025 fell to the lowest level recorded in more than a century, improving on the previous record low set in 2024.
Key Trends
The CDC data show an overall decline of about 22% in the age-adjusted mortality rate since 2021, and U.S. life expectancy reached a record 79 years in 2024. Much of the recent improvement reflects continued reductions in deaths tied to Covid-19 and a decline in illicit drug overdose fatalities.
Leading Causes And Continuing Challenges
Despite the gains, the nation’s three leading causes of death remain heart disease, cancer and unintentional injuries (the latter category includes drug overdoses). Longstanding structural problems continue to limit further progress: high prevalence of chronic conditions such as obesity and type 2 diabetes, relatively elevated infant mortality, gun violence, traffic deaths and uneven access to regular health care.
"The recent fall in mortality is an important post-pandemic rebound, but it reflects recovery from acute shocks rather than a full structural reversal of the long-term gap with other wealthy nations."
Where The U.S. Stands Internationally
Life expectancy in the U.S. climbed 0.6 years between 2023 and 2024, compared with a 0.1-year gain, on average, across the 38-member Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). That narrowed the life-expectancy gap from 4.1 years to 3.7 years in 2024: the U.S. was 79.0 years versus the OECD average of 82.7 years. (CDC and OECD figures for 2025 have not yet been published.)
Unequal Gains At Home
Improvements are not evenly distributed. Mortality gains vary sharply by race, ethnicity and socioeconomic status: the wealthiest Americans can outlive the poorest subgroups by as much as 15 years — a disparity far larger than in many peer countries. A particularly alarming pattern is elevated mortality among young adults: Americans in their 20s face a death rate roughly three times that of counterparts in similar high-income nations.
Outlook
Whether the recent positive trend is sustained depends on addressing deep-rooted, systemic problems: expanding access to continuous preventive care, reducing chronic disease burden, and tackling violence, substance-related harms and other social determinants of health. The improvement in 2024–2025 is encouraging, but analysts caution that it largely represents recovery from acute mortality shocks rather than a definitive structural shift.
Originally published on Forbes.com. Data referenced are provisional CDC figures and OECD averages current through 2024.
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