Two Neighbours From Ness Harim Could Decide Israel’s Next Government — Tropper And Hendel Cross The Threshold

On a ridge in the Judean Hills roughly twenty kilometres from Jerusalem lies the small moshav of Ness Harim. Once quiet and largely off the political radar, it is now the home of two neighbours whose new political list has, for the first time in polls, cleared Israel’s electoral threshold and is projected to win four Knesset seats.

Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel lead Bayit Tzioni - HaMiluimnikim (roughly, The Reservists' Zionist Home). Their entry into the race matters because Israel’s proportional system only awards seats to parties that pass the 3.25% threshold; falling short means all votes for a list are effectively discarded and redistributed to surviving lists.

Why Four Seats Matter

The Channel 12 poll (Midgam, n=509; margin of error ±4.4%) projects the new list at four seats. That shift moves the non-Arab opposition from 56 to 60 seats — still one short of the 61 needed to form a government. Including Arab parties, the opposition totals 70 seats, but most Jewish parties have ruled out forming a government that depends on Arab lists, leaving the anti-Netanyahu bloc technically at 60 without them. In short, Tropper and Hendel’s four seats sit squarely between a bloc that cannot reach 61 and a bloc that refuses certain partners — making them pivotal.

Profiles: Tropper And Hendel

Chili Tropper is known for social outreach and pragmatic religious-Zionist politics. A Jerusalem-born, yeshiva-educated figure who has served as a minister, Tropper is widely recognised for donating a kidney to a stranger (through Matnat Chaim in 2020), taking in a vulnerable haredi teen and later escorting her to the chuppah, and sheltering a Ukrainian refugee family. He helped spearhead a local moshav expansion that intentionally mixed religious and secular families.

Yoaz Hendel combines a security and communications background with grassroots reservist leadership. Though told to stand down on October 7 because of his age, Hendel went south and helped organise veterans into improvised units — later forming Magen Be'eri, composed largely of reservists from elite units. He has spent more than 500 days on active duty since October 7 and quickly moved from the battlefield into politics. Critics note his frequent party changes over the last decade; supporters counter that being outside the last Knesset can be an asset in this election.

Political Arithmetic And Uncertainty

Channel 12’s seat map showed: Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar 23, Likud 22, Naftali Bennett’s Beyahad 14, Yair Golan’s Democrats 10, Avigdor Liberman 9; Shas, United Torah Judaism and Otzma Yehudit about 8 each; and Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism down to 4. Together, parties aligned with Netanyahu total roughly 50 seats in that snapshot.

Polls are uncertain. A party hovering near the 3.25% threshold can be statistically indistinguishable from zero given sampling error. About 9.8% of respondents in the Channel 12 report said they were still undecided, many apparently within the anti-Netanyahu camp — a pool of voters who could still reshape the map.

Bottom line: A list formed by two neighbours who have debated Israel’s civic and religious balance for years now occupies the potential swing four seats. Whether Tropper and Hendel’s presence alters the next government depends on whether their red lines — Hendel has said he will sit only with Zionist parties and excludes both the haredim and Arab parties — hold and how undecided voters move in the coming weeks.

Sources: Channel 12 reporting, Midgam poll figures referenced by Channel 12. All facts presented reflect the published poll snapshot and public records about Tropper and Hendel.