All Eyes On Greater Manchester As Voters Choose New Mayor After Andy Burnham's Move To Westminster

Voters across Greater Manchester will head to the polls on Thursday to elect a new mayor for the city region, a post regarded as one of the most powerful in English local politics — only the prime minister and the mayor of London hold greater authority.

What's At Stake

The contest follows Andy Burnham's recent election in the Makerfield by-election last month, a victory that cleared his path to Downing Street and required him to resign as Greater Manchester's mayor. Labour has selected Bev Craig, the leader of Manchester City Council since 2021, to defend the post. While Craig is well known in Manchester itself, she must build support across the other nine boroughs, where party backing varies significantly.

Context And Recent Trends

Labour's strength in central Manchester contrasts with voting patterns across the wider region. At a time when Labour once held 95 of 96 seats on Manchester City Council, eight of the 10 Greater Manchester boroughs voted Leave in the 2016 Brexit referendum — an electoral geography that has opened opportunities for parties such as Reform UK.

This year's local elections saw Labour squeezed from both left and right. Reform UK and the Greens made gains, and the Liberal Democrats regained control of Stockport by taking seats from the Conservatives. Yet Reform's momentum has shown signs of stalling locally: the Greens won Gorton and Denton in a by-election, and Labour secured a decisive victory in Makerfield — outcomes that complicate Reform's path to converting national poll leads into regional wins.

Andy Burnham was elected as Greater Manchester's mayor for a third time in 2024 [PA Media]

National Figures And The Radical-Right Vote

The radical-right space is fragmented: Restore Britain pressures Reform for the same voters, increasing the risk of a split that could prevent a single challenger from consolidating support. Nigel Farage's prominence has also been dented by controversy over his finances and his focus on his own Clacton by-election in Essex, limiting his ability to campaign intensively in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Legacy And Labour's Vulnerabilities

Many of Burnham's initiatives have broad local support. High-profile elements of his record — transport reforms and targeted investment in towns such as Altrincham and Stockport — are generally popular, and several opponents have pledged to maintain rather than undo them.

But Labour faces ongoing challenges in the region. Public concern about grooming gangs remains an issue for the party, and Burnham's earlier proposals for a congestion charge proved unpopular and were eventually dropped. Voters in a Labour-dominated area may still opt for change, and a Labour loss in this heartland would be seen as an early political setback for Burnham's premiership. Conversely, a Labour victory would reinforce the idea that Burnham's personal appeal can outstrip party performance in parts of the region.

Key Battlegrounds And What To Watch

• Whether Bev Craig can extend Labour's strength beyond central Manchester into boroughs that have been more Conservative or Leave-leaning.
• Whether Reform UK can translate national polling into local results, or if the party's support will be split by Restore Britain and affected by Farage's distractions.
• How the Greens and Liberal Democrats perform in target areas such as Gorton, Denton and Stockport.

Candidates

Greater Manchester mayoral election candidates (alphabetical by surname)

Who will be in charge come Friday morning? [PA Media]

• Sian Astley, Reform UK
• Geraldine Coggins, Green Party
• Bev Craig, Labour
• Phil Eckersley, Conservative
• Marcus Farmer, Independent
• Richard Kilpatrick, Liberal Democrats
• Marlon West, Restore Britain

Selected — Clacton By-election Candidates (alphabetical)

The Clacton contest, where Nigel Farage is standing, features a long list of candidates ranging from mainstream parties to independents and novelty entries. Notable names include Nigel Farage (Reform UK) and Laurence Fox (The Reclaim Party), alongside a wide field of independents and smaller-party candidates.

Whatever the result on Thursday, Greater Manchester will remain close to the centre of political attention: with Number 10 North located in central Manchester, the outcome will be watched nationally as a barometer of support in the former mayor's heartland.

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