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Modi's BJP Nears Breakthrough in West Bengal as Upsets Ripple Across Southern States

Modi's BJP Nears Breakthrough in West Bengal as Upsets Ripple Across Southern States
Large numbers of security officers were deployed for the counting of voting in India's West Bengal state (Dibyangshu SARKAR)(Dibyangshu SARKAR/AFP/AFP)

Early counts showed the BJP leading decisively in West Bengal, ahead in 193 of 294 seats, amid heavy security and clashes at counting centres. The campaign was clouded by controversy over millions of names removed from voter rolls, which critics say targeted marginalised communities. In Tamil Nadu, film star C. Joseph Vijay's new TVK surprised observers by leading in many seats, while trends indicated Congress gains in Kerala and continued BJP strength in Assam and Puducherry.

Supporters of Prime Minister Narendra Modi celebrated in West Bengal as early counts signalled a major gain for his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in tightly fought state elections. Votes were being tallied under heavy security across the state of about 100 million people, one of five states and territories that held polls in April and May.

West Bengal: A Potential Historic Shift

Trends released by the Election Commission showed the BJP leading in 193 of West Bengal's 294 seats, putting the party on track for a breakthrough in a state long governed by the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) under Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.

Counting took place amid tense scenes: scuffles broke out outside several centres and police used batons to control crowds. The campaign was also marked by controversy over the removal of millions of names from voter rolls — a move officials described as cleansing ineligible entries but which critics say disproportionately affected marginalised and minority communities.

Mamata Banerjee: "They are trying to manipulate the election. I want to request TMC candidates to not be disappointed. I had told you that you all will win after sunset. Just wait and watch."
Samik Bhattacharya (West Bengal BJP chief): "It was an election of rejection. People of the state want change."

Tamil Nadu: Film Star Upends Expectations

In Tamil Nadu, early Election Commission trends showed veteran DMK leader M.K. Stalin trailing as film star C. Joseph Vijay — who formed the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) in 2024 — led in 101 of the state's 234 seats, with one seat already declared for his party. The result represents a surprise after many exit polls had predicted a DMK win.

Other States and Wider Implications

The BJP also looked poised to retain or strengthen its position in Assam and to remain influential in the small coastal territory of Puducherry as part of a ruling coalition. In Kerala, trends suggested a strong performance for the Congress-led alliance, with senior Congress figure Shashi Tharoor saying the party could win more than 100 of 140 seats and potentially displace the Communist government.

Shashi Tharoor: "It would be a historic moment — for the first time in recent democratic history, there would be no Communist government in power in any state."
Omar Abdullah: "A BJP win in West Bengal and a TVK victory in Tamil Nadu would be nothing short of a political earthquake. The aftershocks will be felt far and wide, likely into the 2029 general election cycle."

As results continued to roll in, the outcomes in these state votes were widely viewed as more than local contests: they could reshape national political momentum and influence strategies ahead of the next general election.

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