Pollster Invamer finds Ivan Cepeda leading Colombia's presidential race with 44.3% support, putting the ruling left on course to continue President Gustavo Petro's agenda amid a split right. The poll of 3,800 in-person interviews (±2% margin of error) shows Cepeda beating both Abelardo De La Espriella and Paloma Valencia in potential June runoffs. More than 41 million Colombians are eligible to vote on May 31, with a possible June 21 runoff if no candidate secures a majority.
Colombia's Ruling Left Looks Set To Stay In Power As Ivan Cepeda Leads Polls
Presidential candidate of the Pacto Historico (Historic Pact) party Ivan Cepeda speaks during a campaign event in Ciudad Bolivar, Bogota, Colombia, March 21, 2026. REUTERS/Nathalia Angarita
BOGOTÁ, April 26 (Reuters) - Colombia's governing left-wing alliance appears poised to retain power, with Ivan Cepeda leading the presidential contest on 44.3% support and positioned to carry forward President Gustavo Petro's agenda amid a fragmented right, a poll published on Sunday showed.
By the Numbers
The survey, conducted by pollster Invamer and published by Noticias Caracol and Blu Radio, is based on 3,800 in-person interviews and carries a margin of error of ±2%.
- Cepeda's support rose 7.2 percentage points since Invamer's February poll; Paloma Valencia increased by 9.8 points and Abelardo De La Espriella gained 2.6 points.
- In a head-to-head runoff, Cepeda would beat De La Espriella 54.6% to 42.6%, and would defeat Valencia 51.2% to 46.6%.
- Center-left contenders Claudia López and Sergio Fajardo trail with 3.6% and 2.5% respectively, effectively removing them from first-round contention.
Why It Matters
Cepeda, the candidate of the Pacto Histórico coalition, has pledged to deepen social reforms aimed at reducing poverty and inequality under what he describes as President Petro's "change government." If the poll's outlook holds, the election would likely keep Colombia on its current policy trajectory.
More than 41 million Colombians are eligible to vote on May 31; a runoff would be held on June 21 if no candidate wins an outright majority in the first round.
Reporting: Luis Jaime Acosta. Editing: Sumana Nandy.
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