Rep. Eric Swalwell has gained momentum in the crowded race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom, buoyed by endorsements and rising poll numbers. An Emerson survey shows Swalwell at 17 percent while a UC Berkeley/Politico poll puts Republican Steve Hilton at 19 percent, illustrating the race’s volatility. California’s top-two primary and a fragmented Democratic field raise the possibility that two Republicans could advance, prompting party leaders to urge weaker Democrats to step aside.
Swalwell Surges as California Governor’s Race Remains Wide Open
Swalwell gains traction in crowded California governor’s race
Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) has gained momentum in the crowded contest to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom, as new polls and high-profile endorsements boost his standing ahead of the June primary. With California’s top-two, nonpartisan primary system, the race remains fluid and could produce unexpected outcomes — including the possibility of two Republicans advancing to the general election.
Rising Poll Numbers and Key Endorsements
Recent surveys show Swalwell climbing in the polls: an Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey placed him at 17 percent, up from 12 percent in December, while other polls show a more fragmented field. Swalwell has won influential backing, including an endorsement from SEIU California and a plurality of delegates at the state Democratic convention — roughly 10 points ahead of Tom Steyer — though no official party endorsement was secured.
Name Recognition and Campaign Strategy
Analysts attribute Swalwell’s rise to his national profile, built in part by his role as a manager during former President Donald Trump’s second impeachment and sustained media visibility on social and cable platforms. Campaign strategists say those advantages have helped fundraising and broadened his reach.
“The polls are really good for Swalwell, not only obviously because they show he’s ahead of other Democrats, but also because they’ll help with fundraising,” said Jack Pitney, a politics professor at Claremont McKenna College. “A lot of Democratic contributors out there are looking for a horse to bet on, and the morning line seems to favor Swalwell.”
Conflicting Polls Leave Race Unsettled
Not all surveys point in the same direction. The Emerson poll put Swalwell four points ahead of Republican former Fox News host Steve Hilton, while a UC Berkeley/Politico poll showed Hilton leading at 19 percent, with Swalwell, Porter and others clustered lower. In several polls, roughly a quarter of likely voters remain undecided, underscoring the volatility of the field.
Top-Two System Creates Strategic Concerns
Political models that combine polling and betting-market data suggest the most probable outcome remains a Democrat vs. Republican general election. However, roughly one in five simulated scenarios produced two Republicans as the top vote-getters — a prospect that has alarmed Democrats and prompted party leaders to urge weaker candidates to consider stepping aside.
California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks issued an open letter advising candidates without a viable path to the general election not to file, warning that crowded ballots and lingering names could siphon votes and undermine stronger Democratic contenders.
What Could Shift the Balance
Observers say several dynamics could reshape the race: a decisive endorsement from a major figure such as Rep. Nancy Pelosi; a surge by a Republican that forces a one-on-one matchup with a leading Democrat; or the late entry or exit of potential spoilers like San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan. Attacks over Swalwell’s residency raised headlines but analysts say such challenges are unlikely to derail his campaign and may even increase his visibility.
The field remains highly competitive, with endorsements, name recognition, fundraising, and voter awareness all likely to determine which two candidates advance to November.
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