The UAE and Saudi Arabia, once close partners, are increasingly locked in a strategic rivalry that spans Yemen, Sudan and the Horn of Africa. Abu Dhabi’s willingness to back local armed actors and focus on countering political Islam contrasts with Riyadh’s push to preserve state authorities and lead regional policymaking. The competition has manifested in the STC’s advances in Yemen, accusations over arms to Sudan’s RSF, and growing economic rivalry since the 2021 OPEC dispute.
Best of Frenemies: How the Saudi–UAE Rivalry Is Reshaping the Region
A photograph shows military vehicles, allegedly sent by the UAE to support separatist forces, that were damaged in an air strike carried out by the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen (STRINGER)(STRINGER/AFP/AFP)
For years the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia projected joint geopolitical and economic influence across the Gulf and beyond. What once appeared to be a tandem partnership has frayed into a competitive rivalry, with tensions now visible in Yemen, Sudan, the Horn of Africa and global markets.
From Partners To Rivals
The relationship between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan was long seen as the linchpin of cooperation between the two Gulf powers. As both leaders pursued divergent priorities — Riyadh pressing rapid domestic economic reform and reasserting regional leadership, and Abu Dhabi taking a more interventionist, partner-building approach — policy differences widened into open competition.
Strategic And Ideological Split
Analysts point to deep strategic and ideological contrasts. Yemen and Gulf expert Baraa Shiban says Riyadh is concerned by what it views as Abu Dhabi's readiness to back non-state actors to gain influence, rather than preserving existing state authorities. He also highlights the UAE's pronounced focus on countering the Muslim Brotherhood and political Islam — a posture Abu Dhabi has promoted regionally to a greater degree than Saudi Arabia.
Baraa Shiban: "Seeing one country with huge influence, like the United Arab Emirates, crafting bilateral deals... suddenly having footholds in multiple countries with those non-state actors, it's something [Saudi Arabia] would be very concerned about."
Yemen: A Visible Rift
The divide in Yemen became acute when the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) seized large parts of resource-rich Hadramawt and Mahra provinces from forces aligned with the internationally recognised government, which Riyadh backs. In a recent escalation, the Saudi-led coalition said it bombed an alleged shipment of Emirati weapons destined for separatists. The UAE had earlier withdrawn most of its forces from Yemen in July 2019, underscoring different strategic approaches.
Sudan And The RSF Allegations
Relations have also been strained by conflicting positions in Sudan. Abu Dhabi has faced widespread accusations — denied by the UAE — of arming the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which have been fighting Sudan's regular army since April 2023. Saudi Arabia, by contrast, has provided backing to the Sudanese army. Researcher Emadeddin Badi suggested the STC’s moves in Yemen may have been interpreted as retaliation linked to Riyadh’s diplomatic initiatives.
Horn Of Africa: A New Arena Of Competition
The Horn of Africa has become another competitive front because of its strategic access to the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. The UAE has strengthened ties with Ethiopia and Somaliland — and maintains a military presence at Berbera since 2017 — while Saudi Arabia has cultivated relations with Mogadishu. Israel’s recent recognition of Somaliland, which Riyadh condemned but Abu Dhabi did not, has further complicated the regional balance.
Economic Rivalry
A dispute over OPEC output curbs in 2021 sharpened economic competition. Both states are racing to diversify away from oil: Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 has aggressively courted multinationals and pushed policy changes that prompted some companies to relocate regional hubs to Riyadh. Saudi initiatives in aviation, tourism and media aim to rival Dubai’s established offerings. Recent relaxations of rules — including allowing some wealthy non-Muslim residents to buy alcohol — are seen as part of Riyadh’s bid to attract foreign workers and investment.
The accumulation of competing security, ideological and economic initiatives helps explain why a relationship once portrayed as seamless is now fracturing into open competition across multiple regions. The rivalry carries implications for regional stability, foreign investment flows and the future alignment of local actors across the Middle East and Horn of Africa.
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