Democrats Eye Jan. 30 Funding Deadline as Leverage to Extend Expiring ObamaCare Subsidies

House Democrats pressing to renew expiring ObamaCare premium tax credits are positioning the Jan. 30 government funding deadline as potential leverage to force action on the subsidies.

Both the subsidies issue and the broader funding debate are expected to dominate Capitol Hill when lawmakers return after the holiday recess. Although the two fights are formally on separate tracks, a growing number of Democrats say the health-care dispute will inevitably intersect with appropriations as the deadline approaches.

Why Democrats Say the Deadline Matters

Democrats argue that because the premium tax credits expire on Dec. 31, the real-world consequences for millions of beneficiaries will be in full effect by late January — potentially increasing pressure on Senate Republicans to act.

“I can’t see how it doesn’t,” Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.) said when asked whether the ACA fight would merge with funding negotiations.

Some House Democrats have already suggested they could withhold votes for a final spending package unless ObamaCare subsidies are extended first.

“I don’t think we’re going to be eager to give them Democratic votes if this thing is still unresolved,” Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) said.

Recent History And The Road Ahead

There is precedent for this tactic. In October, Democrats in both chambers declined to back a GOP funding plan that failed to address the subsidies, contributing to the 43-day government shutdown. That impasse ended when a group of eight Senate Democrats broke with the leadership to reopen the government without a subsidy extension.

Democrats note the political optics will be different next month: with the credits lapsed, constituents could face immediate increases in premiums or loss of coverage, and lawmakers may be more vulnerable to voter complaints.

Procedural Moves And Negotiations

Since the shutdown, four House Republicans endorsed a rarely used discharge petition to force a floor vote on a Democratic-backed three-year extension over the objections of Speaker Mike Johnson and House GOP leaders. Johnson declined to bring the measure to the floor this month, but the discharge petition vote is scheduled to be among the first orders of business when the House returns the week of Jan. 5.

“We’re already hearing from some folks in the Senate that it’s been a useful point of momentum for those who want to save this thing,” Huffman said of the petition.

How the Senate will respond is uncertain. A standalone Democratic "clean" extension previously failed in the upper chamber and would likely face similar obstacles. At the same time, a bloc of centrist senators has been exploring a compromise that would offer a shorter extension (one or two years) paired with policy changes designed to attract GOP votes, such as tighter income-eligibility limits.

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) has called the House discharge effort a “boost,” and several senators and House centrists have held bipartisan talks to craft language that could potentially reach the 60 votes needed in the Senate.

Sticking Points

Significant hurdles remain. Several Senate Republicans are demanding that abortion-related restrictions be attached to any health-care package — a nonstarter for many Democrats — and Senate leadership has not committed to scheduling a vote on a compromise. Speaker Johnson is also expected to oppose any ACA bill sent back from the Senate, prompting proponents to consider additional procedural steps in the House.

“You shouldn’t have to leverage the threat of a shutdown or anything like that to get this done,” Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.) said, reflecting the view of some Republicans who favor a standalone solution.

Others point to Republicans’ long-running efforts to roll back the ACA and say the only realistic paths forward may be to sidestep GOP leaders or bind the subsidies to the year-end funding fight.

“The problem is there’s no consensus on their side. … They haven’t been able to come up with a policy. They haven’t been able to come up with a plan,” Rep. Juan Vargas (D-Calif.) said. “They’re not about to be able to come up with one over Christmas.”

What To Watch: Whether the House discharge petition succeeds the week of Jan. 5; whether centrist senators can craft a one- or two-year compromise that wins 60 votes; and whether Democrats use the Jan. 30 funding deadline as leverage — a strategy that could raise the prospect of another shutdown if the subsidy fight remains unresolved.

Source: Nexstar Media, Inc.