Trump Administration Proposes Looser Fuel-Economy Rules — Experts Say Lower Prices Aren’t Guaranteed

DETROIT — The Trump administration has proposed rolling back Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for light‑duty vehicles, cutting the industry fleetwide target to roughly 34.5 mpg (55.5 kpg) by the 2031 model year — down from the Biden‑era target of about 50.4 mpg (81.1 kpg) for that year. Officials say the change will lower vehicle costs and improve road safety. Experts and analysts caution the benefits are uncertain and the savings may be limited or slow to materialize.

Affordability: Why Sticker Prices Didn’t Rise Solely Because Of Efficiency Rules

Claim: The administration argues that EV-friendly and stricter fuel‑economy policies forced automakers to adopt costly technologies, raising new‑car prices.

Context and facts: Fuel‑economy standards have contributed to higher development costs, but multiple other forces have driven up prices: pandemic‑era inventory shortages, supply‑chain disruptions, tariffs and trade pressures, automakers’ investments and a consumer shift toward larger, more expensive pickups and SUVs.

According to Edmunds, the average transaction price of a new vehicle reached about $49,105 in October. A Consumer Reports analysis covering model years 2003–2021 — a period when average fuel economy improved roughly 30% — found no clear link between tighter standards and an increase in inflation‑adjusted sticker prices. That study also estimated average lifetime fuel savings of roughly $7,000 per 2021 vehicle versus a 2003 model, and attributed much sticker‑price growth to a shift to bigger vehicles.

Experts say loosening CAFE standards is unlikely to produce quick, large reductions in sticker prices. Even if manufacturers lower vehicle costs, any savings might be offset by higher lifetime fuel expenses due to poorer mileage.

“Ending” Gasoline Cars? What The Policies Actually Did

The Biden administration pursued policies to accelerate electric vehicle (EV) adoption — including a nonbinding goal for EVs to account for roughly half of new U.S. vehicle sales by 2030, tax incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act (up to $7,500 for qualifying buyers), and substantial funding for charging infrastructure. Those measures encouraged EV growth but did not require automakers to sell EVs or consumers to buy them; gasoline vehicles still constitute the majority of U.S. sales.

EV Charging: More Ports, But Uneven Distribution

Charging infrastructure has expanded markedly: there are now more than 232,000 Level 2 and fast‑charging ports in the U.S. AP’s analysis of Department of Energy data indicates enough fast chargers have been installed to average roughly one fast charger per mile of the National Highway System. However, fast chargers are unevenly distributed — concentrated in parts of the West and the Northeast where EV adoption is highest. Analysts also note that most EV owners do the majority of charging at home.

Safety: New Cars Are Safer — But Price Effects Are Unclear

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has said eased standards could make drivers safer by making new vehicles more affordable, encouraging owners to replace older cars that lack modern safety technology. New vehicles, whether gasoline, hybrid or electric, increasingly include advanced safety features such as automatic emergency braking, lane‑keeping assistance and collision warnings.

That logic depends on the assumption that lower fuel‑economy rules will meaningfully reduce prices and accelerate fleet turnover — an outcome experts say is far from guaranteed. Safety technology itself adds to vehicle costs, and independent groups like the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety say EVs and hybrids are at least as safe as gasoline cars.

Beyond crash safety, fuel‑efficiency rules historically have helped reduce air pollution, improving public health. Environmental advocates warn that rolling back standards could keep more polluting vehicles on the road for longer, worsening health and climate impacts.

“This rollback would move the auto industry backwards, keeping polluting cars on our roads for years to come and threatening the health of millions of Americans,” said Katherine García of the Sierra Club’s Clean Transportation for All campaign.

Associated Press data journalist M.K. Wildeman contributed from Hartford, Connecticut. Follow Alexa St. John on X: @alexa_stjohn and reach her at ast.john@ap.org.