Trump Faces Biden-Style Backlash on Affordability as Polls Slide

Trump Faces Biden-Style Backlash on Affordability

On Friday morning President Donald Trump sharply criticized the state of the economy and repeatedly asserted that consumer prices are falling — a claim at odds with recent data. In a social media post he wrote that “Cost, and INFLATION, were far higher under the Sleepy Joe Biden Administration, than they are now” and claimed costs under his administration are “tumbling down,” including an assertion that Thanksgiving costs are 25% lower than last year.

Trump: “Cost, and INFLATION, were far higher under the Sleepy Joe Biden Administration, than they are now. In fact, costs under the TRUMP ADMINISTRATION are tumbling down... We are the Party of Affordability!”

That claim conflicts with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data: the September CPI, the last full monthly inflation read before a temporary government shutdown, showed inflation ticked up by 0.3 percent. While short-term monthly movements do not capture the full trajectory of prices, the September reading undermines categorical statements that inflation is broadly falling.

What the polls say

An AP–NORC poll released Thursday found President Trump with a 36% overall approval rating and a 62% disapproval rating; his approval specifically on economic management was 33%. Those numbers highlight a political vulnerability on the economy — particularly on the issue of affordability — that Democrats used effectively in recent elections.

Why this matters: tariffs, pass-throughs and hidden costs

Analysts warn that additional price pressure could be coming. A note from Goldman Sachs estimated firms had so far passed only about 37% of tariff-driven cost increases through to consumers. Companies may have been absorbing some tariff costs temporarily, hoping for new trade deals or a short-lived policy window, but eventually those costs tend to work their way into consumer prices.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sought to calm markets by saying the administration would cut tariffs on certain items such as coffee and bananas — goods that are not grown domestically. Many economists point out that broad, across-the-board tariffs contributed to recent spikes in prices for some commodities, including a double-digit jump in coffee prices. If tariffs are sustained or expanded, more price increases could follow.

Healthcare: another pressure point for household budgets

Health-care subsidies are another wildcard for affordability. Democrats delayed reopening parts of the government to press for the renewal of enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies that were expanded during the Covid era. Critics warned that without those subsidies some consumers could face sharply higher premiums. Although the government has since reopened and Senate Republican leaders signaled plans to vote on extending the subsidies in December, it is unclear whether the necessary cross-party votes will materialize, or whether the House will act promptly.

Political implications

President Trump’s messaging is mirroring a strategy Joe Biden used during earlier economic debates: emphasize headline economic gains while downplaying the day-to-day pain voters feel from grocery, fuel and health-care costs. That approach proved politically risky for Biden because household experiences — not just macroeconomic indicators — shape voter sentiment.

For Trump, the political risk is similar: persistent price increases and concerns about affordability could erode public support, weaken his standing on economic issues and make it harder to advance his agenda if voters respond at the ballot box by empowering opposition lawmakers.

Conclusion

Inflation and affordability remain central issues for voters. Clear, credible policy steps and honest messaging about trade-offs could help reduce political fallout; continuing to assert that prices are broadly falling when data show otherwise may deepen the vulnerability that recent polls already reflect.