Inside the Multi‑Million‑Dollar Battle To Block Missouri’s GOP Gerrymander

Overview

Republicans and Democrats have quietly funneled millions into a high‑stakes contest to stop Missouri’s newly redrawn congressional map — a fight with national implications for control of the U.S. House in 2026. The GOP‑controlled legislature approved the map in September, a plan that would eliminate Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s Kansas City‑based seat and shift Missouri’s delegation toward Republicans.

What’s At Stake

Democrats organized People Not Politicians to qualify a popular referendum that could pause the map. The committee must submit roughly 107,000 valid signatures by Dec. 11 to force the map onto the ballot; if they do, the state would be barred temporarily from implementing the new districts until voters decide.

Money, Outside Groups and National Attention

Both parties and national allies have poured unprecedented sums into the fight for a Missouri ballot fight. Notable donations and activity include:

• The Republican National Committee and the National Republican Campaign Committee contributed a combined $100,000 soon after the GOP ballot‑measure vehicle Put Missouri First PAC formed.
• Two separate $1 million contributions came from Securing American Greatness (a Trump‑aligned PAC) and the American Action Network (affiliated with House Republicans’ primary super PAC).
• Democratic‑aligned dark‑money groups have given more than $1.25 million to People Not Politicians, including $500,000 from American Opportunity Action and $250,000 from former Rep. Cori Bush.

Litigation, Tactics and Investigations

The referendum fight has spawned a tangle of legal challenges and aggressive tactics. Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway filed a federal lawsuit arguing a referendum to block the legislative map violates both the U.S. and Missouri constitutions, invoking aspects of the controversial independent state legislature theory — a theory largely rejected by the Supreme Court in Moore v. Harper (2023). Trump‑appointed Judge Zachary Bluestone is set to rule on whether the referendum can be blocked before the Dec. 11 signature deadline.

At least seven lawsuits have been filed over the new districts or the referendum process. The ACLU, working with People Not Politicians, has sued in state court seeking to invalidate mid‑decade redistricting under the state constitution. People Not Politicians has also sued Secretary of State Denny Hoskins over ballot language and referendum procedure.

The campaign has drawn contentious tactics aimed at slowing signature gathering: a contract surfaced offering a canvasser $5,000 to stop collecting signatures (source unverified), and AG Hanaway publicly accused Advanced Micro Targeting, a firm assisting the referendum, of employing undocumented workers and said her office contacted ICE — charges the firm denies.

Political Context And Potential Impact

Operatives on both sides say the fight matters far beyond Missouri. If the referendum goes to voters and succeeds, it could disrupt Republican plans to shore up congressional advantages ahead of 2026. If it fails — or if courts block the referendum from qualifying — the map would take effect and shape future House races.

"Imagine the kind of democratic paralysis our state would be in if this happened every 10 years," said GOP strategist Aaron Blake. "That would just be chaos."

The coming weeks and months will likely bring more litigation and spending; court rulings on several redistricting cases are expected through January, which will determine whether a ballot election can be scheduled in 2024 or 2026.

Bottom Line

This is a nationally watched, well‑funded struggle over how congressional lines are drawn and who decides them. It combines high‑stakes politics, aggressive campaign tactics and a complex legal fight that could set precedent for mid‑decade redistricting and the use of referendums.