Mid‑Decade Redistricting Surges — New Maps in TX, CA, MO, NC and UT Could Reshape the 2026 House

Overview

Several states have launched a rare mid‑decade redistricting push that could meaningfully change the U.S. House map ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Texas, California, Missouri and North Carolina have advanced new congressional plans, while a Utah judge ordered a court‑drawn map that would create a Democratic‑leaning Salt Lake City district. Those moves have prompted lawsuits, heated political fights and national attention as both parties jockey to protect or expand narrow majorities.

How this started

The recent wave began after former President Donald Trump urged Texas Republicans to seek additional House seats. Gov. Greg Abbott signed legislation in August to redraw Texas' congressional lines and create GOP‑friendly districts. That action prompted Democrats and governors in other states to respond — most notably California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who campaigned for a voter‑approved plan to redraw that state's map to help Democrats.

Special legislative sessions, courtroom battles and intense public debate have followed. Texas Democrats briefly fled the state to deny a quorum during Abbott's called session; Missouri's Republican leaders moved quickly to pass a new map; and a Utah judge rejected the legislature's plan for violating an anti‑gerrymandering voter initiative.

Legal fights and challenges

Multiple lawsuits are already under way. The NAACP has challenged Missouri's process, arguing the governor lacked authority to enact a new map outside a census year, and civil‑rights groups have filed suits in Texas alleging racial bias. California's voter‑approved Proposition 50 has itself been targeted by state Republicans in post‑election litigation. These legal battles make the fate of several new maps uncertain.

Kareem Crayton, vice president at the Brennan Center for Justice, cautioned that modern mapping tools make predictions sharper but political behavior remains volatile: "It's folly to assume that presidential voting patterns will automatically translate to congressional outcomes in brand‑new districts."

State breakdowns (modeled on 2024 results)

Texas

Seats: 38 (25 R, 13 D). The GOP plan focuses on converting competitive areas — notably parts of the Rio Grande Valley, Dallas‑Fort Worth and Houston — into more Republican districts. Under the proposed lines, some districts currently around 70% Democratic could drop to roughly 40% Democratic, and other Dallas and Houston seats would see similar large changes. Austin's liberal base would be divided among neighboring districts; Rep. Lloyd Doggett said he would not seek reelection if the maps are upheld, avoiding a contested primary with Rep. Greg Casar.

California

Seats: 52 (43 D, 9 R). California's voter‑approved redrawing would shift several districts toward Democrats. For example, Rep. Darrell Issa's 48th District near San Diego would flip from a roughly 42% Democratic share to around 52% under the new plan, while other inland and northern districts would move closer to Democratic margins. Some Republican incumbents would see their districts become noticeably bluer.

Missouri

Lawmakers passed a new map in 2025 that significantly alters the Kansas City area. Under the enacted plan, Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's district would swing from an estimated 62% Democratic to about 41% Democratic. The map also slightly shifts partisan balances in neighboring districts; critics and civil‑rights groups have challenged the process and timing of the legislation.

North Carolina

Seats: 14 (10 R, 4 D). North Carolina Republicans targeted Rep. Don Davis' 1st Congressional District in a map passed in late October. The revised boundaries would move the district south into parts of the current 3rd District and reduce its modeled Democratic share from roughly 48% to about 44%.

Utah

Utah's situation differs: there are no Democratic members of Congress from the state, and a judge stepped in after finding the legislature's map violated a voter‑approved anti‑gerrymandering measure. On Nov. 10, 3rd District Court Judge Dianna Gibson rejected the legislature's plan and selected a map that would create a Democratic‑leaning Salt Lake City district modeled at about 62% Democratic based on 2024 presidential results.

What this means

Mid‑decade redistricting is an uncommon but powerful tool. These changes could alter incumbents' margins and reshape competitive battlegrounds ahead of 2026, but court challenges, shifting turnout patterns and the unpredictable nature of voter behavior mean outcomes are not guaranteed. The contests over maps are likely to continue in courts and legislatures through the next election cycle.

Key takeaway: Both parties are aggressively using legislation, ballot measures and litigation to redraw districts, but legal rulings and voter dynamics will determine how many of these mid‑decade changes actually survive to affect the 2026 House map.