California GOP Shrinks to Four Safe Seats After Prop 50, Sparking Bitter Internal Fight

SACRAMENTO — A Democratic-drawn congressional map driven by Proposition 50 has pushed California’s House Republicans to the brink and triggered immediate infighting as incumbents scramble for the few remaining favorable districts.

Once a state where GOP-held congressional seats guaranteed influence in Washington, California now appears to have just four clearly safe Republican districts out of 52. Republicans and operatives describe a decades-long decline that, after the new map, has left many party members feeling demoralized and desperate.

Incumbents Clash Over Scarce Seats

The scramble began almost immediately after the map was finalized. Within 24 hours, Rep. Ken Calvert announced he would seek one of the few remaining Republican-leaning districts after his Southern California seat was redrawn in favor of Democrats. Rep. Young Kim quickly followed with a planned $3.5 million ad buy scheduled to begin in April — an unusually early, large media commitment that looked intended to dominate the airwaves and raise ad prices before competitors could respond.

“I’m sure Gavin Newsom and the Democrats are sitting back laughing and enjoying the havoc they’ve wreaked on the Republicans in California,” said veteran consultant Dave Gilliard. “It’s going to be crazy next year, no doubt about it.”

Kim and Calvert had been among the GOP’s strongest performers in recent cycles, holding parts of Orange and Riverside counties despite well-funded Democratic challengers. Now both face a primary fight many inside the party hoped to avoid. Rep. Doug LaMalfa said he had hoped party leaders would broker an agreement to avoid Republicans fighting one another, warning that such contests are “counterproductive” and waste scarce resources.

Other Vulnerable Republicans

Several other incumbents face uncertain futures. Rep. Darrell Issa, who briefly retired once before because of unfavorable maps, even considered relocating to Texas after his district tilted bluer. Rep. Kevin Kiley’s district was fragmented into multiple pieces, leaving him to choose between running in a Democratic-leaning district or challenging fellow Republican Rep. Tom McClintock. Rep. Doug LaMalfa could face Sen. Mike McGuire, a Democratic leader from wine country who helped oversee redistricting.

Longtime Republican strategists warn that the losses would have consequences beyond party politics. “If Ken Calvert goes away, there goes a very powerful Californian on water issues who’s also an appropriator — that's a big deal,” said consultant Rob Stutzman. “Rural California does lose its voice if they lose LaMalfa.”

Party Mood and Strategy

Despite some earlier gains — including flips in the state legislature and a successful anti-crime ballot measure in 2024 — many Republicans describe the mood among operatives and voters as somber. Consultant Tim Rosales said professionals are rethinking strategy while ordinary Republican voters feel repeatedly sidelined by statewide outcomes.

National groups have pledged targeted help: the National Republican Congressional Committee says it will defend frontline incumbents such as Rep. David Valadao and continue to contest vulnerable Democrats, with an NRCC spokesman asserting that “no map can shield” the opposition. Meanwhile, some Republican strategists are pursuing legal challenges and new ballot initiatives to change redistricting rules.

Long-Term Implications

California remains politically consequential because of its population and the number of House seats, and it still has nearly 6 million registered Republican voters. Nevertheless, party leaders warn that if current lines hold, national Republicans may divert money to more winnable contests elsewhere, making 2026 a potentially quiet year for GOP efforts in the state.

For now, Republicans are weighing litigation, ballot measures and internal reforms while debating how to preserve influence in a state that has steadily shifted toward Democrats. Some remain hopeful. “The obituary for Republicans in California has been written many times,” Rosales said, “and it’s never come to fruition.”