Democrats Split Over Mid-Decade Redistricting After Supreme Court Upholds Texas Map

Democrats Split Over Redistricting After Supreme Court Upholds Texas Map

The Supreme Court on Thursday cleared the way for Texas Republicans to keep a contested congressional map in place next year, a decision that could create as many as five pickup opportunities for GOP candidates and has intensified a national debate within the Democratic Party over whether to pursue mid-decade redistricting in response.

Deep Divisions Across States

While Virginia leaders have publicly signaled they may redraw congressional lines, Democrats in other states — including Illinois and Maryland — have raised legal, political and practical objections. The disagreement highlights competing priorities within the party: protect minority voting strength and avoid costly legal fights, or respond aggressively to Republican mapmaking to preserve competitive seats.

"Two wrongs don’t make a right. Never have, and they never will," said Illinois state Sen. Willie Preston (D), chair of the Illinois Legislative Black Caucus and a vocal opponent of mid-cycle redistricting in his state.

Preston said he would consider any map that preserved Black voters' power but added that he did not believe there was broad appetite in Illinois for a mid-decade redraw. Practical constraints add to the hesitation: Illinois’ candidate filing deadline was Nov. 3, limiting the state's options ahead of the next cycle.

What the Court Did and Immediate Fallout

A federal panel had blocked the Texas map last month, but after an appeal, Justice Samuel Alito issued a temporary stay allowing the newly drawn lines to be used while the Supreme Court considers the case. Republican strategists argue the map could yield up to five pickup opportunities for the GOP next year.

Even before the high court’s action, some Virginia Democrats teased potential responses. Don Scott, Speaker of the Virginia House of Delegates, suggested aggressively drawn maps could be an option if pursued in a community-focused way. Virginia Senate President Pro Tempore L. Louise Lucas hinted on X that Democrats had a response ready.

State-Level Battles And Risk Assessments

In Maryland, Gov. Wes Moore supports pursuing redistricting, but State Senate President Bill Ferguson cautioned that the legal risks were "too high" and warned of potentially catastrophic downside for Democrats. In Illinois, some Democratic leaders say all options remain on the table despite skepticism from others.

Democrats can point to recent redistricting victories: California voters approved Proposition 50, a measure advocated by Gov. Gavin Newsom that could produce a map favorable to Democrats, and a Utah judge rejected a Republican-favored map in favor of an alternative that would create a Democratic-leaning district.

Mixed Outlook From Experts

Some analysts caution that Republican net gains from recent map fights may be modest. "Keep in mind that even with the TX map upheld by SCOTUS, Republicans still on track for a very minimal overall gain from redistricting," wrote Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, noting Florida, Indiana, Louisiana and Virginia remain key question marks.

Republicans are not unified either: the Indiana House GOP passed a new map to tilt all nine districts toward Republicans, but the proposal faces uncertainty in the state Senate.

Higher-Stakes Legal Fight Ahead

Democrats are also bracing for a potentially larger setback depending on an upcoming Supreme Court decision about the Voting Rights Act and Louisiana’s congressional map. A ruling that limits the role of race in drawing districts could open the door to widespread Southern redraws ahead of the 2026 midterms — a development Democrats say could result in substantial seat losses.

John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, urged urgency: "I think everybody needs to realize that we’re at an existential moment in this country and truly appreciate and evaluate the need for our democracy to retain its representative nature."

As the high court weighs those and other cases, redistricting fights in multiple states are likely to continue, leaving Democrats to weigh legal risk, electoral opportunity and the long-term implications for representation.