Can Affordability Fuel a Democratic Upset in Deep-Red Tennessee? Progressive Aftyn Behn Tests the Case

Aftyn Behn, the Democratic nominee in next week’s special election for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, has made affordability — from groceries to health care — the centerpiece of her campaign. Her message echoes the economic themes that helped Democrats win recent gubernatorial contests elsewhere and tests whether cost-of-living concerns can overcome a district that President Trump won by 22 points in 2024.

District dynamics and the candidates

The 7th District, vacant after Republican Rep. Mark Green resigned earlier this year, stretches from parts of Nashville across largely rural territory to the Alabama border. Tennessee’s 2022 redistricting fragmented Nashville — long represented by moderate Rep. Jim Cooper — and redistributed its voters into districts that lean Republican.

Behn, a state representative and former progressive organizer, narrowly won a four-way Democratic primary. Her Republican opponent, Matt Van Epps, a combat veteran and member of the Tennessee Army National Guard, won a crowded GOP primary and has the endorsement of former President Trump.

Why the race matters

National attention has poured into the contest: outside groups have spent millions on advertising, and national figures from both parties have scheduled appearances and tele-rallies to mobilize supporters. Many view the special election as an early barometer of voter sentiment ahead of the 2026 cycle.

AdImpact data show more than $4 million in advertising since the primaries, with roughly $2.5 million coming from Republican sources. Much of that spending focuses on portraying Behn as out of step with the district by highlighting past remarks about policing, cultural issues and immigration enforcement.

Contested terrain: message, background and attacks

Republicans argue the district’s partisan lean and Behn’s progressive record give them the advantage. Ads highlight a clip in which Behn described herself as “a very radical person,” segments of her podcast where she criticized country music and Nashville’s tourist scene, and a video in which she said she was “bullying the ICE vehicles and state troopers” while monitoring immigration operations — a comment she has described as satirical.

Behn says opponents are resorting to personal attacks and that many resurfaced comments have been taken out of context. She notes that several remarks predate her tenure as an elected official and says her approach has evolved since moving from activism into public office.

“I don’t care who you voted for,” Behn says. “If you are upset about the cost of living and the chaos of Washington, then I’m your candidate.”

State and national Democrats counter that voter frustration over rising costs and what they describe as a faltering Washington agenda could drive turnout and allow Behn to overperform in a district that normally wouldn’t be competitive for Democrats. Jim Cooper and other local Democrats have framed the race as an opportunity for voters to send a message about affordability and governance.

Outlook and closing arguments

Despite Democratic optimism and heavy outside spending, most observers still view Van Epps as the favorite because of the district’s partisan tilt and historical voting patterns. Van Epps has emphasized lowering the cost of living for Tennessee families and has pledged to work with national Republican leaders on that agenda. Republicans, however, acknowledge the race could be closer than the 20-point margins posted in the district last year and are intensifying outreach to consolidate conservative turnout.

Both campaigns are treating the contest as competitive and are pushing final messaging on affordability, trustworthiness and fitness for the district. Whether economic concerns will be enough to bridge a wide partisan gap — or whether partisan loyalty and critiques of Behn’s past remarks will hold sway — will be decided at the polls next week.