The International Space Station, inhabited since November 2, 2000, is scheduled for controlled deorbit in 2031 due to aging hardware and cost. Private companies—Vast, Axiom, Blue Origin and Starlab—are developing commercial space stations (beginning with Vast’s Haven-1) to host short visits, scientific experiments and in-orbit manufacturing. NASA plans to transition from operator to tenant to focus on deeper-space missions, but experts disagree on whether commercial outposts will fully replace the ISS’s scientific role or distract from Moon and Mars exploration. The coming decade will determine whether a viable orbital economy emerges.
The End of the ISS and the Rise of Commercial Space Stations: A New Era in Low Earth Orbit
The International Space Station, inhabited since November 2, 2000, is scheduled for controlled deorbit in 2031 due to aging hardware and cost. Private companies—Vast, Axiom, Blue Origin and Starlab—are developing commercial space stations (beginning with Vast’s Haven-1) to host short visits, scientific experiments and in-orbit manufacturing. NASA plans to transition from operator to tenant to focus on deeper-space missions, but experts disagree on whether commercial outposts will fully replace the ISS’s scientific role or distract from Moon and Mars exploration. The coming decade will determine whether a viable orbital economy emerges.
12:22, 02.11.2025Science
A Historic Handover
For more than 25 years humans have lived continuously aboard the International Space Station (ISS) since the arrival of the first crew on November 2, 2000. Built through international cooperation in the post–Cold War era, the ISS has advanced space science, demonstrated long-duration human spaceflight, and become an enduring symbol of collaboration. NASA plans a controlled deorbit of the station in 2031, citing aging hardware and mounting maintenance costs; the agency has contracted SpaceX to develop a vehicle to guide the station’s reentry into the Pacific.
Private Outposts Take Center Stage
As the ISS retires, commercial companies are preparing orbital habitats to succeed it. Firms such as Vast, Axiom Space, Blue Origin and Starlab are developing stations aimed at hosting visitors, supporting research, and enabling in-orbit manufacturing. Vast plans to launch its compact Haven-1 module as early as May 2026, with a larger Haven-2 envisioned to sustain longer stays. These private outposts are designed to serve a mix of sovereign customers (including NASA), commercial researchers and private travelers.
What the New Stations Will Offer
Early commercial modules are intended for short-stay visits and niche research. Haven-1, for example, is a single, camper-van-sized module that will launch uncrewed and host up to four occupants for stays of roughly 10 days; visitors would travel aboard SpaceX Dragon capsules and benefit from amenities such as private sleeping berths, a domed Earth-viewing window, Starlink internet and a small onboard lab. Longer-term plans include multi-module complexes—like Vast’s proposed Haven-2 and Axiom’s growing Axiom Station—designed to support continuous crews and more extensive research ecosystems.
Science, Commerce and Tourism
Commercial stations will broaden priorities in low Earth orbit. Whereas the ISS was primarily framed as a scientific laboratory and international research platform, private habitats are likely to mix research with tourism and commercial manufacturing. Advocates point to potential advantages—such as improved semiconductor crystals and other products that benefit from microgravity—and to growing consumer demand for suborbital and orbital experiences. Blue Origin’s New Shepard and Virgin Galactic’s operations illustrate rising public appetite for brief spaceflights, while companies forecast falling ticket prices as flight cadence increases.
Voices from the Field
Former NASA administrator Bill Nelson emphasizes the ISS’s legacy in proving how to live and work safely in orbit and says shifting NASA from operator to tenant will free resources for deep-space exploration. Space-policy expert Greg Autry praises the ISS as a unique human achievement but accepts NASA’s cost-based decision not to preserve it indefinitely. Scientists such as Fabrizio Fiore note that commercial stations could make experiment installation faster and more flexible, while astrobiologist Caleb Scharf sees expanded orbital capabilities as a potential long-term step in humanity’s evolution. Skeptics like planetary scientist Ian Crawford warn that focusing too much on low Earth orbit could distract from Moon and Mars exploration goals.
Opportunities and Uncertainties
The transition to commercial stations carries both opportunity and risk. If companies deliver robust platforms and steady customers, low Earth orbit could become a lively economy for research, manufacturing and tourism—allowing NASA and other agencies to pursue bolder missions deeper into the solar system. Conversely, economic or technical setbacks could limit the scientific contribution of these private outposts or slow their deployment.
Looking Ahead
When the ISS is retired, it will mark the close of a quarter-century experiment in continuous human habitation of space. New commercial stations will inherit many of the ISS’s roles, but how they balance science, industry and tourism will shape the future of human activity in orbit. Regardless of the outcome, the handover represents a major evolution in how humanity lives and works off Earth.
Key facts: ISS first inhabited: Nov 2, 2000. Planned deorbit: 2031. Early commercial players: Vast (Haven-1/Haven-2), Axiom Space, Blue Origin, Starlab. SpaceX contracted to assist deorbit.