Polls Show A Tight Race — A new RNZ-Reid Research poll puts National at 25.9% — its lowest level since 2020 — while Labour is at 30.8% and the Greens at 14.8%. The Opportunity Party polled 5.5%, just above the usual threshold to enter Parliament and potentially able to hold the balance of power if results mirror the survey on Nov. 7. With New Zealand's mixed-member proportional system, coalition negotiations look likely and the overall outcome remains uncertain.
New Poll: National Falls To Lowest Support Since 2020 — Greens Rise, Opportunity Could Be Kingmaker
FILE PHOTO: New Zealand's Prime Minister and Leader of the National Party, Christopher Luxon, speaks at the New Zealand National Party's election campaign launch in Auckland, New Zealand, September 27, 2026. REUTERS/David Rowland/File Photo
Wellington, Oct 6 — A new RNZ-Reid Research online poll found New Zealand's ruling National Party at 25.9% support, its weakest showing since the 2020 election, while the Greens rose to 14.8%. The figures add pressure on Prime Minister Christopher Luxon with the general election roughly one month away.
Labour slipped to 30.8%, and the smaller Opportunity Party reached 5.5%, just above the usual threshold required to enter Parliament without winning an electorate seat.
What The Poll Means
If these percentages are repeated on Nov. 7, neither a National-led right bloc nor a Labour–Greens–Te Pāti Māori left grouping would secure an outright majority in the 120-seat Parliament. That outcome could make the Opportunity Party pivotal in post-election coalition negotiations.
Luxon has previously said National is unlikely to form a partnership with the Opportunity Party because of disagreements over its tax policies.
A separate 1News Verian poll released last week suggested a potential left-leaning coalition of Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and the Opportunity Party could secure 65 seats, versus 59 for National, ACT and NZ First — underscoring how tight the race remains.
Polling Details
- Survey: RNZ-Reid Research online poll of 1,000 eligible voters
- Field dates: Sept. 24–Oct. 1
- Margin of error: ±3.1 percentage points
(Reporting by Lucy Craymer; Editing by Mark Porter)
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