Marquette Law's latest poll shows a near tie in the Wisconsin governor's race: David Crowley leads 49% to Tom Tiffany's 46% among likely voters. Tiffany's public breaks with President Trump — over renaming Lake Ontario, data center subsidies and beef import tariffs — have coincided with gains for the Republican. Polls show narrow margins, Trump's approval in Wisconsin is down, and the Cook Political Report calls the contest a toss-up.
Tiffany Narrows Wisconsin Governor’s Race After Public Break With Trump, Marquette Poll Shows
U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany, Republican from Wisconsin, speaks in Milwaukee on July 8. (Photo by Mark Schiefelbein/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)
A new Marquette Law poll finds the Wisconsin governor's race essentially tied, with Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany closing the gap on Democratic Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley after publicly diverging from President Donald Trump on several issues.
Poll Results
Among likely voters, Crowley leads 49% to Tiffany's 46%, with 5% undecided. Among all registered voters, Crowley is at 46% and Tiffany at 45%, while 9% remain undecided. The survey was conducted Sept. 16–23, 2026, among 843 registered voters and 692 likely voters. The margin of error is ±4.8 percentage points for likely voters and ±4.3 points for registered voters.
Democratic Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate David Crowley speaks to supporters at a campaign rally on August 10 in Milwaukee. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Trends And Shifts
The new numbers show Tiffany gaining ground since last month: his support among Republicans rose four points, Crowley's support among Democrats dipped two points, and independent voters shifted noticeably — Crowley's backing fell 11 points, Tiffany picked up 2 points, and undecided independents rose by 8 points. Favorability ratings show Crowley at 31% favorable/44% unfavorable, and Tiffany at 39% favorable/45% unfavorable.
Campaign Responses
"We've seen unprecedented spending from Trump-aligned billionaires... and Wisconsinites are still choosing David Crowley because they know David gets it and has their back," Campaign Manager Garren Randolph said in a statement to Newsweek. "We're holding strong, but nobody should mistake a lead for a finish line..."
In response, Tiffany told Newsweek: "The more voters learn about David Crowley's tax-hiking record, the more they'll see how wrong he is for Wisconsin... I'll return the $3 billion surplus, lower property taxes, and cut income taxes by 10% for working families."
Where The Candidates Differ From Trump
Tiffany has publicly broken with President Trump on several recent items: he criticized Trump's order renaming Lake Ontario, opposed subsidies for data centers on the grounds that they burden ratepayers, and sided with Wisconsin farmers against a Trump plan to waive tariffs on imported beef. These departures have become a focal point in the campaign and may be reshaping voter perceptions.
Context
Trump's approval in Wisconsin fell to 38% (60% disapprove) in the Marquette poll. Other recent surveys show narrow Crowley leads, and The Cook Political Report currently rates the race a toss-up. With fewer than five weeks until Election Day, both parties are intensifying efforts across the state.
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