Harry Enten of CNN warns that white voters without a college degree — once the backbone of Donald Trump's campaigns — are turning away ahead of the midterms. Enten cited a swing from roughly +25 to about -2 among this group and highlighted a sharp drop in Trump's inflation approval from +24 to -39. He attributes the shift largely to economic concerns, while the White House points to near-universal support among MAGA loyalists. The change could have major implications for the November midterms.
Pollster Warns White Non-College Voters Are 'Ripping the Heart Out' of Trump's Presidency
One demographic is ‘ripping the heart out of Trump’s presidency,’ pollster warns
President Donald Trump is losing ground among white voters without a college degree — a group Harry Enten of CNN describes as having once been the "heartbeat" of his campaigns and now “ripping the heart out” of his presidency as the midterms approach.
Speaking with John Berman on CNN News Central, Enten linked Trump's recent promise of a $15 billion steel plant in Iowa to an effort to regain support among that exact demographic. He presented polling comparisons showing a sharp decline in the president's standing with white non-college voters.
President Donald Trump's support among white non-college voters has fallen dramatically since October 2024, according to CNN data analyst Harry Enten (CNN)
"The target group of voters is white, non-college voters," Enten told Berman. "They were the heartbeat of President Trump's three presidential campaigns. And right now, the heartland is ripping the heart out of Donald Trump's presidency."
Enten said Trump led this cohort by about 25 points two years earlier, but now stands near -2 points — a swing Enten described as roughly a 27-point decline from the group that helped secure his 2024 victory. He highlighted inflation as a major factor: Trump’s approval on inflation among white non-college voters reportedly fell from +24 to -39, a 63-point reversal on an issue central to his 2024 campaign message.
Why It Matters
Enten argued that no recent Republican president has been as dependent on white non-college voters as Trump, and that his current standing with that group is unusually weak for a second-term president. He compared the current dynamic to historical midterm swings, noting that shifting voter loyalties in second-term midterms have previously cost presidents control of Congress.
Trump has routinely dismissed negative polling surrounding the midterms and instead pointed to the solid support he continues to enjoy among his MAGA base (Reuters)
Economics appears to be the driving force behind the shift. Enten suggested many in this demographic gave Democrats a chance after losing confidence in the prior administration’s economic stewardship, and now feel Trump has not delivered superior results.
Administration Response
The White House and Trump allies have emphasized his enduring support among the MAGA base. Trump shared a clip of Enten’s segment on Truth Social that highlighted a reported 98% approval rate among his most committed supporters, and outlets like Fox News have used the same excerpt under headlines such as "No cracks in the MAGA wall."
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle told The Independent: "No one can dispute the fact that President Trump has created one of the most robust coalitions in political history with the MAGA movement, and the president understands how to communicate with them."
Ingle framed the coming November vote as a clear choice between continuing what he called "President Trump's winning, commonsense agenda" and "the Democrats' extreme liberal policies and obstruction."
As the midterms near, the shifting support among white non-college voters — a cohort that powered Trump's previous campaigns — may be a decisive factor in control of Congress and in the broader political landscape.
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