Fox News' updated Power Rankings moved four House seats toward Democrats, including Missouri's 5th District, which flipped from Solid R to Solid D after the Missouri Supreme Court voided newly redrawn maps. Three Ohio districts also shifted left — most notably Rep. Max Miller's seat, which moved from Likely R to Toss Up amid controversy. Fox noted Democrats hold 212 seats to the GOP's 206, with 17 districts considered highly competitive.
Fox News Shifts Four House Races Toward Democrats — Missouri Seat Flips From Solid R To Solid D
Screenshot via FoxNews.com
Fox News' latest Power Rankings moved four U.S. House seats toward the Democrats, including a Missouri district that was reclassified from a safe Republican seat to a safe Democratic seat after a state court decision restored previous map lines. The update adds to a string of recent forecasts and ratings that have shifted in Democrats' favor for the November elections.
"Democrats are still the favorites to take the House this November, with 212 seats in their columns to the GOP's 206," Fox News lead political affairs specialist Rémy Numa wrote in an analysis published Monday. "There are 17 seats that are so close they could go either way."
Missouri: MO-05 Reverts to Solid D
One of the most notable changes involved Missouri's 5th Congressional District, centered in Kansas City. Incumbent Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO), who won his last race by 24 points, faced a tougher path after the Republican-controlled legislature redrew his district to include more rural territory. Fox initially rated the new map's contest as Solid R.
Last week, the Missouri Supreme Court issued a unanimous ruling that the contested legislative maps were invalid because they had not been approved by voters. The decision restored Cleaver's previous district boundaries, prompting Fox News to revert its rating to Solid D. Missouri has appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court; if the high court takes the case and rules for the state, the district could shift back toward Republicans.
Numa also noted that restoring the old lines made Missouri's 2nd District (MO-02) more competitive, though its rating remained at Likely R.
Ohio: Three Districts Move Left
Fox News moved three Ohio House races toward Democrats. The most prominent change was in Ohio's 7th Congressional District, held by Rep. Max Miller (R-OH). Miller has been the subject of intense headlines and allegations tied to a custody dispute with his ex-wife, Emily Moreno, including claims of physical abuse. Those controversies, and public calls from some Republicans — including his former father-in-law, Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) — to step aside, prompted Fox to shift the seat from Likely R to Toss Up, labeling it "highly competitive."
Fox's analysis also credited Sen. Sherrod Brown's (D-OH) strong statewide performance with creating down-ballot momentum for Democrats. That boost lifted the competitiveness of Ohio's 10th and 15th Districts, contests against Reps. Mike Turner (R-OH) and Mike Carey (R-OH), respectively. While both incumbents retain the advantage, Fox moved these districts from Solid R to Likely R.
Context And What To Watch
The Fox News update follows other recent shifts in election forecasts: an earlier Fox adjustment made the Texas Senate race more competitive, polling analyst Nate Silver rated that contest Lean D, and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball moved several gubernatorial and congressional contests toward Democrats. The landscape remains fluid — with legal appeals and high-profile controversies capable of altering the ratings again.
What To Watch Next: The outcome of Missouri's appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court could reverse the MO-05 rating, and continuing headlines in Ohio could further affect the competitiveness of the Buckeye State's races.
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