The latest N12 poll places Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar! on top with 23 seats, narrowly ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud at 22, while the opposition bloc reaches 70 seats versus 50 for the current coalition in the 120-seat Knesset. Bayit Tzioni - HaMiluimnikim would clear the 3.25% threshold and win four seats, while Blue and White and Balad remain below the threshold. Security and the handling of the war are the dominant concerns for voters (32%), and nearly 30% of those planning to switch their vote say October 7 influenced that change.
October 7 Remains Top Concern as Eisenkot’s Yashar! Edges Out Likud in N12 Poll; Opposition Reaches 70 Seats
Former IDF chief of staff Lt.-Gen. Gadi Eisenkot of the Yashar Party. (photo credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH90)
A new N12 poll published Monday shows Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar! as Israel's leading party with 23 Knesset seats, narrowly ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud at 22. The survey projects the broader opposition bloc at 70 seats versus 50 for the current coalition in the 120-seat Knesset.
Poll Results and Party Breakdown
The poll distributes seats as follows: Yashar! 23, Likud 22, Together (led by Naftali Bennett) 14, Democrats (Yair Golan) 10, Yisrael Beytenu (Avigdor Lieberman) 9. Religious and right-wing lists—Shas, United Torah Judaism and Otzma Yehudit—are each projected at eight seats. Hadash-Ta'al and Ra'am poll at five seats apiece, and the Religious Zionist Party at four.
Two parties polled below the electoral threshold (3.25%): Blue and White (Benny Gantz) at 1.6% and Balad (Sami Abu Shehadeh) at 1.3% would not enter the Knesset. By contrast, the new list Bayit Tzioni - HaMiluimnikim (Reservists' Zionist Home), led by Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel, would clear the threshold and pick up four seats—an outcome that helps push the opposition total to 70 seats.
Leadership Ratings and Head-to-Head Matchups
Head-to-head preference for prime minister shows Eisenkot and Netanyahu tied at 38% each in the latest survey. Netanyahu still leads on perceived suitability versus Naftali Bennett (40% to 34%) and is viewed more suitable than Avigdor Lieberman (39% to 25%).
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a vote at the plenum hall of the Knesset, the Israeli parliament in Jerusalem, on July 16, 2026. (credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH90)
Voter Sentiment: October 7 and Security
The poll found high voter decisiveness: only 10% described themselves as "still hesitant." Among undecided voters, 1.3% lean toward the Netanyahu bloc, 4% toward the change bloc, and 1.3% remain unsure.
Security and the handling of the war are the most influential issues, cited by 32% of respondents as the single biggest factor shaping their vote. Nearly 30% of respondents who say they'll vote for a different party than in the previous election said the events of October 7 affected that decision. About one-fifth of voters said polarization and social division were their main concern; 12% cited personal security and crime prevention, and 12% named who leads each bloc as decisive.
What Could Shift the Balance
N12 noted that if the Arab parties Hadash-Ta'al and Balad ran together on a joint ticket, Likud would lose an additional seat and fall to 21 mandates. This week's findings also mark the first time in the poll that non-Arab opposition parties together have reached 60 seats, a notable milestone for challengers to the current coalition.
Note: The Knesset has 120 seats; the electoral threshold to enter the Knesset is 3.25% of the vote.
Photo caption: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a vote in the Knesset plenum, Jerusalem, July 16, 2026. (Credit: Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)
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