Net migration to the UK has fallen by about half since Keir Starmer took office, despite widespread public belief that migration is increasing. Immigration peaked at nearly 1.5 million a year in 2023 and has since declined, but small‑boat asylum crossings have remained stable. The visibility of those crossings and general public misperception of statistics help explain why voters continue to view immigration as Britain’s top issue.
Net Migration Has Halved Under Starmer — Yet Most Britons Think It’s Rising
A chart showing the UK’s net migration.
Britain’s net migration has fallen to roughly half the level seen when Keir Starmer became prime minister, even though many members of the public continue to believe migration is rising.
The Numbers
Overall immigration surged after the Covid pandemic and reached a peak of almost 1.5 million people a year in 2023. Since that peak, net migration has declined sharply. However, the highly visible number of asylum seekers arriving in small boats has remained broadly stable, keeping migration a prominent public concern.
Why Perception Lags Reality
Several factors help explain the gap between the data and public opinion. Small‑boat crossings attract media attention and political focus, making them more salient than broader migration trends. At the same time, surveys show voters in many countries are often misinformed about statistical topics such as crime, public spending and migration—so headline impressions can overshadow the full picture.
Political Consequences
Immigration has become a major political issue for the government: voters now frequently cite it as the most important problem facing Britain, and a majority say they want migration numbers reduced. That political weight persists even as aggregate figures fall.
Bottom line: Net migration has declined significantly since its 2023 peak, but stable small‑boat arrivals and public misperception mean many Britons still believe migration is rising.
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