New projections by Statistical Forecasting for the New York City School Construction Authority estimate that public school enrollment will fall to 721,251 by 2034–35 — roughly 153,000 fewer students than in 2024–25. All five boroughs are expected to see declines, with the biggest losses in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. Analysts point to low birthrates, resident outmigration and an aging population, while a separate CBC report says the city had a net domestic loss of about 114,000 residents in 2025.
NYC Public School Enrollment Projected To Fall By About 153,000 Over Next Decade
New York City’s public schools are projected to drop, mirroring the downward trend of its overall population since last year.(Fox News)
New York City’s public school system is projected to shrink substantially over the next decade, following a broader population decline that began last year.
Key Findings
A Statistical Forecasting analysis prepared for the New York City School Construction Authority (SCA) projects that enrollment will fall to 721,251 in the 2034–35 school year — roughly 153,000 fewer students than in 2024–25.
The report forecasts enrollment declines across all five boroughs. Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx are expected to experience the largest drops, with projected losses of about 45,000, 43,000 and 35,000 students respectively.
New York City public schools lost 22,000 students this yearfrom last year’s906,248 students.
Why Enrollment Is Falling
Analysts attribute the projected decline to a mix of long-term demographic and migration trends: persistently low birthrates, continued resident departures from the city, and an aging population. The SCA retained Statistical Forecasting to produce these ten-year projections covering the 2025–26 through 2034–35 school years.
Local And National Context
Local data underscore the speed of the decline. According to preliminary Department of Education figures, New York City’s traditional public schools enrolled roughly 884,400 students this year — down about 22,000 from last year’s total of 906,248. At the start of the 2019–2020 school year the system enrolled more than 1,002,000 students, meaning the district has lost in excess of 117,000 students since then.
These NYC trends reflect broader national shifts: The New York Times reported that K–12 public school enrollment has declined in 30 states since the mid-2010s as families pursue alternatives to neighborhood schools or relocate.
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
Related Population Trends
A Citizens Budget Commission (CBC) report released recently found that New York City experienced a net domestic loss of approximately 114,000 residents in 2025, reversing two years of modest growth. The CBC said many residents are relocating in search of lower costs of living, lower taxes and perceived improvements in overall quality of life.
Response From Officials
“New York City Public Schools is committed to providing a world-class education for all our students,” Isla Gething, a spokesperson for NYC Public Schools, told Fox News Digital. “Enrollment can shift for many reasons, and these are trends we monitor closely. Our focus remains on delivering strong academic programs and safe learning environments in every classroom as we plan for the future with a long-term focus on stability and equity.”
City officials, including Mayor Zohran Mamdani and representatives from the education department, did not respond to requests for additional comment from Fox News Digital at the time of reporting.
What This Means: A sustained enrollment decline could affect school capacity planning, facility use, staffing and budget allocations across the city. City leaders and education planners will need to weigh demographic forecasts alongside program and community needs as they plan for the coming decade.
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