California’s political weight now shapes national trends as wealth, population and media influence converge. The governor’s race is wide open after Rep. Eric Swalwell’s abrupt exit, and a new CBS News poll shows a fragmented field with the leader at 16% and 26% undecided ahead of the June 2 jungle primary. Key players include Republicans Mike Hilton and Chad Blanco and Democrats Tom Steyer, Xavier Becerra and Katie Porter. Economic anxiety and a proposed one-time 5% billionaire surcharge add urgency, while potential 2028 presidential bids from Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris keep California at the center of national politics.
California Dreaming: How The Golden State Became A National Political Powerhouse
California’s cultural clout has long been a national talking point — but now the state’s politics are reshaping the country’s agenda. Wealth, population size and outsized media influence have made the Golden State a central stage for national races and political trends, even as it remains a reliably Democratic stronghold.
Governor’s Race: An Open, Unpredictable Contest
The race for governor exploded into chaos after the abrupt departure of Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), who left amid sexual-assault allegations. With roughly five weeks to go before the June 2 open “jungle” primary — where the top two vote-getters advance to the November ballot regardless of party — the field remains fragmented and volatile.
A new CBS News survey of likely primary voters shows the leading candidate with just 16 percent support, four others near double digits and fully 26 percent undecided. That muddled landscape leaves room for dramatic movement and a potentially surprising finish.
Poll Leaders And The Threat Of Vote Splitting
Republican Mike Hilton, a onetime Fox News contributor, narrowly leads the poll with 16 percent; Riverside County Sheriff Chad Blanco follows at 10 percent. Former President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Hilton could consolidate MAGA-aligned voters, raising the prospect that a divided Democratic field might allow two Republicans to capture both November slots — a result that would be damaging to Democrats at state and national levels.
However, the same survey finds that only about one in five primary voters want a Trump-aligned candidate, and roughly 70 percent of likely primary voters disapprove of Trump’s presidential performance, limiting the GOP outlook.
Democratic Contenders And Money In Politics
The three highest-polling Democrats are Tom Steyer (15 percent), Xavier Becerra (13 percent) and Katie Porter (9 percent). Steyer, the billionaire environmentalist, has already spent more than $132 million on media — making his personal wealth a major wildcard whose outcome could foreshadow how big money shapes future midterm and presidential contests.
Becerra, the former state attorney general and ex-Health and Human Services secretary, has gained momentum since Swalwell’s exit by positioning himself as a steady, experienced choice amid the chaos. Porter remains a notable progressive voice with strong name recognition among Democratic voters.
Issues Driving Voters
Economic anxiety is a top concern: seven in ten respondents say the cost of living in their area is unmanageable. That affordability crisis is shaping voter priorities and could undercut Republican gubernatorial prospects in 2026 both in California and nationally.
Voters will also weigh a proposed ballot measure that would impose a one-time 5 percent surcharge on billionaires’ earnings — a policy idea that dovetails with congressional proposals from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Ro Khanna to increase taxes on the ultrawealthy.
Looking Ahead: Presidential Implications
Beyond 2024, California looms large for the 2028 presidential sweepstakes. Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris are frequently discussed as potential Democratic contenders, and Rep. Ro Khanna is also reported to be considering a run. How the governor’s race unfolds could affect Newsom’s standing as a national figure and whether he intervenes to unify Democrats in the primary.
Why It Matters
California’s elections now send ripples through the national political conversation — from congressional control to the dynamics of presidential contests and debates over wealth taxation. Political observers who dismiss California’s influence do so at their own peril.
About the author: Brad Bannon is a national Democratic strategist and CEO of Bannon Communications. He hosts the progressive podcast Deadline D.C. with Brad Bannon.
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