California’s crowded Democratic primary and the state’s top-two system create a real chance that two Republicans could advance to November. Polling shows no Democrat above 20%, and simulations put the odds of Democrats being shut out at nearly 1 in 5. Heavy spending by Tom Steyer, Matt Mahan’s Silicon Valley backing, split labor endorsements and late entries have fragmented the field; party leaders’ endorsements may be needed to unify voters.
Why California Democrats Fear Being Shut Out: How a Crowded Primary Could Send Two Republicans to November
From left: Xavier Becerra, Steve Hilton, Matt Mahan, Tom Steyer, Tony Thurmond, Antonio Villaraigosa and Betty Yee stand on the stage during the California gubernatorial candidate debate in San Francisco, on February 3, 2026. - Laure Andrillon/AP
As Democrats nationally anticipate gains this year, California — the nation’s largest blue state — presents an unexpected headache: the realistic possibility that the November gubernatorial ballot could feature two Republicans, leaving Democrats entirely off the ticket.
The Mechanics: How The Top-Two Primary Raises The Risk
California’s “top-two” primary places every candidate, from every party, on a single ballot and advances only the two highest vote-getters to the general election. That structure means a fragmented Democratic field could allow two Republicans to finish first and second in June and move on to November.
California gubernatorial candidate Katie Porter speaks at the 2026 California Democratic Party State Convention in San Francisco, on February 21, 2026. - Jeff Chiu/AP
Why Democrats Are Vulnerable This Cycle
The Democratic slate is unusually crowded and lacks a clear frontrunner. High-profile Democrats such as Sen. Alex Padilla and former Vice President Kamala Harris declined to run, and Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis pursued another office. That opened the door to a large field including Katie Porter, Xavier Becerra, Eric Swalwell, Tom Steyer, Matt Mahan, Antonio Villaraigosa, Tony Thurmond and Betty Yee.
Public polls from the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) and UC Berkeley’s Citrin Center show no candidate above 20%. Those surveys currently have Republican Steve Hilton leading modestly, with Porter, Swalwell, Steyer and Republican Chad Bianco clustered close behind — a dynamic that increases the danger a Democrat could be edged out.
California gubernatorial candidate Eric Swalwell speaks during the California Democratic Convention in San Francisco, on February 21, 2026. - Manuel Orbegozo/Reuters
Simulations, Math And The 20% Threshold
Democratic data analyst Paul Mitchell has run thousands of primary simulations and estimates the current odds of Democrats being shut out of the general election at just under 1 in 5. Most analysts say the practical safety threshold is roughly 20% of the primary vote for at least one Democrat: with Republicans expected to command roughly 34%–38% of the total primary vote, a Democrat who reaches about 20% would be difficult to box out mathematically.
Money, Endorsements And Fragmented Coalitions
Fundraising and advertising play an outsized role in California, a vast state where name recognition requires heavy spending. Tom Steyer’s self-funded ads have saturated the airwaves; Matt Mahan has deep Silicon Valley resources; other Democrats lack comparable ad budgets. That financial imbalance, plus late entries by Swalwell, Steyer and Mahan, has kept the Democratic electorate split.
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tom Steyer speaking at a town hall meeting in Culver City, California, on March 14, 2026. - Ted SoquiSipa USA/AP
Labor endorsements are divided: the California Teachers Association backed Swalwell; the California Teamsters and a UAW local backed Porter; nurses and domestic-worker unions leaned to Steyer; the state AFL-CIO split its support across several candidates. Strategists argue that major endorsements from figures such as Gov. Gavin Newsom, Sen. Alex Padilla or former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi could help unify voters — but so far Newsom has declined to pick a favorite.
Vulnerabilities And Campaign Tactics
Swalwell is viewed by many Democrats as the most plausible consolidating candidate, aided by labor backing and endorsements from Sen. Adam Schiff and figures close to Newsom. But he faces ethical questions tied to an AI company he founded, criticism over missed votes, and the specter of old investigative materials being publicized. Steyer has already begun negative advertising aimed at Swalwell and may target Porter as well — a strategy that could leave Democrats further splintered if Steyer remains the last major Democrat standing.
Voters check in at a polling station inside San Francisco City Hall on November 04, 2025. - Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Implications For Newsom And The System
A Republican governor in California would be both a political embarrassment and a practical problem for Gov. Newsom, complicating any future presidential ambitions and likely provoking partisan probes of his record. The risk has renewed scrutiny of the top-two primary system, which was intended to reduce polarization but has produced unanticipated strategic behavior in high-profile races.
Bottom Line
Most Democrats still believe voters will coalesce behind a viable candidate before June, but the combination of a crowded field, uneven spending, split endorsements and the top-two format means the danger of a GOP-only November remains real. Unless one Democrat consolidates to roughly 20% of the primary vote, the party risks being shut out of the gubernatorial general election in its most reliably blue state.
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