Taiwan recorded an unexplained 13-day gap in sightings of Chinese warplanes beginning Feb. 27. The lull ended when five PLA aircraft were detected near the Taiwan Strait, coinciding with a US Navy P-8 transit. Analysts suggest several possible reasons — including de-escalation before a Xi–Trump meeting, distractions from the Iran conflict, or the close of China’s "Two Sessions" — but no firm explanation has emerged.
Mystery Pause: Chinese Fighter Jets Vanish Near Taiwan for 13 Days — Cause Unclear
A J-15 Chinese fighter jet prepares to take off from the Shandong aircraft carrier during a combat readiness patrol on April 9, 2023. - An Ni/AP
Taiwan experienced an unusual and unexplained 13-day gap in sightings of Chinese military aircraft operating near the island, a striking break from a multi-year trend of rising sorties by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The lull ended when Taiwan’s military recorded five PLA aircraft operating around the Taiwan Strait within a 24-hour period, several near the median line that divides the waterway.
What Happened
Starting on February 27, Taiwan logged 13 consecutive days without detecting Chinese warplanes near the island. There was a brief exception on March 6 when two aircraft were recorded in the far southwest corner of Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, but otherwise the skies remained unusually quiet until the brief resumption of flights on Thursday.
Expert Reactions and Context
“This is frankly unlike anything we’ve seen in recent history in terms of PLA activity around Taiwan,” said Ben Lewis, founder of PLATracker, an open-data platform monitoring Chinese military movements. “Since Taiwan’s defense ministry began releasing this data in 2020 the trend has been up, up, up. And now this lull represents a very significant change in the pattern.”
Taiwan’s defense minister, Wellington Koo, urged caution about drawing firm conclusions. He noted that Chinese naval activity around the island continued throughout the period, underscoring that the reduction in aircraft does not mean Beijing’s broader pressure on Taiwan has diminished.
Possible Explanations
Analysts have proposed several theories for the pause, including:
- Deliberate de-escalation ahead of an expected meeting between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump, where Taiwan could be a sensitive topic.
- Distraction or resource shifts related to the war involving Iran and potential impacts on global energy and military priorities.
- The conclusion of China’s annual "Two Sessions" (parliamentary meetings), a period when some military movements have historically slowed.
On the day the five PLA aircraft were recorded, a US Navy P-8 surveillance plane transited the Taiwan Strait. The US 7th Fleet described the transit as a demonstration of Washington’s "commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific," and the limited Chinese response may have been intended to monitor the US aircraft rather than signal an escalation.
Why It Matters
Over the past five years, Beijing has steadily increased the number of aircraft operating near Taiwan, normalizing what previously would have been viewed as major incursions. On some peak days, Taiwan has reported dozens of PLA aircraft. The sudden absence of sorties for nearly two weeks — followed by a muted return — leaves analysts watching closely for whether this marks a short-term fluctuation or a longer change in PLA behavior.
For now, no definitive explanation has been confirmed. Taiwanese authorities and international observers say they will continue to monitor air and naval activity around the island for any further changes.
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