Senators Demand Answers Over 'Death Bets' on Prediction Markets Linked to Polymarket

Democratic senators in the U.S. Senate have urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to investigate online prediction markets that list wagers tied to death or serious harm, singling out Polymarket as a focal point.

In a letter delivered Monday to CFTC Chair Michael Selig, the senators raised alarms about contracts that they say could create perverse incentives to incite violence, destabilize geopolitical situations, or lead to the disclosure of classified information. The correspondence follows a controversial video by Selig in which he said the administration would seek to limit state regulation of prediction markets similar to the one launched last year by former President Trump and his family.

"We are writing to express strong concern with prediction contracts that incentivize physical injury or death, and the grave and perverse moral and geopolitical implications of these contracts," the senators wrote. "These contracts present dangerous national security risks, including creating incentives to incite violence, foment geopolitical conflicts, and disclose classified information. These concerns have already been realized in recent months as these contracts proliferate on exchanges."

The lawmakers highlighted specific Polymarket wagers tied to the potential ouster or capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, the possible explosion of NASA's Artemis II rocket, and outcomes connected to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Reporting cited in the letter noted that a Polymarket bet related to Maduro’s capture paid out more than $400,000, prompting questions about insider trading and ethical issues.

Sen. Adam Schiff at the Capitol in Jan. 15, 2025.(Ben Curtis / AP Photo)

Signatories to the letter include Sens. Adam Schiff (Calif.), Richard Blumenthal (Conn.), Tim Kaine (Va.), Cory Booker (N.J.), and Nevada Senators Catherine Cortez-Masto and Jacky Rosen. The senators asked the CFTC whether death-related wagers would be considered contrary to the public interest and if the commission will prohibit such contracts or issue guidance on wagers tied to "war, terrorism, or assassination."

Observers and lawmakers warned that the combination of deep-pocketed defense-related interests and the global reach of online gambling platforms could produce dangerous incentives if these markets remain unregulated. The senators urged the CFTC to respond promptly and consider regulatory or enforcement actions to mitigate the risks.

This article was originally published on MS NOW.