Government data show the daily homicide average in Mexico fell nearly 40% from 86.9 in September 2024 to 52.4 in December 2025, and the 2025 annual murder rate was reported at 17.5 per 100,000 — the lowest since 2015. Officials credit coordinated federal-state security efforts, but the national statistics agency INEGI may revise totals upward after further checks. Critics note killings remain concentrated in a handful of states, point to the assassination of local politicians and a record rise in disappearances, and call for stronger local policing.
Mexico Sees Nearly 40% Drop in Daily Homicides Under President Sheinbaum — Officials Stress Progress, Critics Warn
Mexico City’s Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum speaks during an interview with Reuters in Mexico City, Mexico September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Raquel Cunha
Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum has presided over a sharp decline in reported daily homicides since taking office in October 2024, government officials said, citing preliminary statistics released in early January 2026.
Key Figures and Official Claims
According to the National Public Security System, the daily homicide average fell to 52.4 in December 2025, down from 86.9 in September 2024 — a decline of nearly 40%. Officials also reported an annual national murder rate of 17.5 per 100,000 people for 2025, the lowest yearly rate since 2015.
Sheinbaum said at a morning press conference that these were 'the lowest numbers since 2016' and credited the results to closer coordination between federal security forces and state governors.
Sources and Methodology
Mexico's National Public Security System compiles monthly homicide counts from state prosecutors. Officials cautioned that homicide totals are often revised — frequently upward — when the national statistics agency INEGI publishes revised figures after additional checks and validation. INEGI draws on civil registries and forensic services and is considered the definitive source, but its numbers are released with a longer delay.
Criticism and Ongoing Challenges
Opposition parties and analysts welcomed the fall in homicides but cautioned that lethal violence remains concentrated in a small number of states. Seven of Mexico's 32 states now account for just over half of all homicides nationwide, led by Guanajuato, Sinaloa and Baja California.
Critics point to continuing high-profile political killings and a sharp rise in forced disappearances. The Mexican NGO Common Cause reported that 56 politicians were killed last year, including seven sitting mayors; the assassination of Uruapan Mayor Carlos Manzo in Michoacán in November drew national condemnation. Mexico's national registry of disappeared persons recorded 14,765 missing people in Sheinbaum's first year in office, a 16% increase from the prior year.
Senator Mario Vázquez of the opposition PAN party urged greater investment in local police forces and community-level responses, saying: 'Mexico deserves real security, not speeches.'
What To Watch
Analysts and civic groups say progress will hinge on whether reductions in recorded homicides hold up after INEGI's revisions, whether violence continues to be geographically concentrated, and whether the government improves local policing and protections for vulnerable groups, including public officials.
(Reporting based on statements from Mexico's National Public Security System and related official presentations; compiled from Reuters reporting.)
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