Crime analyst Jeff Asher says the U.S. is on track to end 2025 with a 19.8% drop in homicides, based mainly on the Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI) data from 570 agencies. The RTCI recorded 5,912 murders from January through October 2025, down from 7,369 in 2024 and 8,520 in 2023. Other sources, including the Gun Violence Archive, show shootings and fatal shootings are down, and major cities have reported historic lows. Official FBI crime statistics are expected in 2026 to confirm the trend.
Homicides Fall Nearly 20% in 2025, Data Shows — A Record Drop in Trump’s First Year Back
Crime analyst Jeff Asher reports that the United States is on track to finish 2025 with a roughly 19.8% decline in homicides, a decline based primarily on the Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI).
The RTCI aggregates monthly crime data from about 570 law enforcement agencies nationwide and historically accounts for roughly half of recorded murders. According to Asher’s analysis, the RTCI recorded 5,912 murders between January and October 2025 — down from 7,369 through the same point in 2024 and 8,520 in 2023. The recent peak occurred in 2021, when there were 10,016 murders through October.
Sources And Context
Asher noted that the RTCI can diverge slightly from the official FBI statistics, which will not be released until 2026, but he said there is "sufficient information now to say what next year’s FBI crime estimates will say with fairly good confidence." He also cited the Gun Violence Archive, which reports shootings are down 17% year-over-year and fatal shootings are down 13%.
“The drop in crime in 2025 is very real and very large,” Asher wrote.
City-Level Lows Underscore National Trend
Several major cities are reporting historic lows that help illustrate the broader national decline:
- New Orleans is on pace for its fewest murders since 1970.
- New York City reported the fewest shootings ever recorded since citywide tracking began (likely in the 1990s).
- Through November, cities including Detroit (lowest since 1964), Baltimore (1962), Philadelphia (1966), Oakland (1967) and San Francisco (likely since at least 1942) logged their lowest murder totals in decades.
Other Crime Categories Also Down
Asher’s post highlights notable declines across several other crime categories in 2025: motor vehicle theft fell about 23.2%, robbery declined 18.3%, and reported rapes decreased by nearly 9%.
The data come as President Donald Trump continues to emphasize "law and order" in his public remarks. While some will link the improvements to policy or policing changes, analysts caution that finalized national data from the FBI and longer-term trends will offer fuller context in 2026.
What to Watch: The FBI’s official statistics, expected in 2026, will confirm whether these preliminary declines hold across the complete national dataset and will provide additional detail on regional and demographic patterns.
