Trump's Venezuela Strikes Put Mexico on Edge Over Sovereignty and Security

The weekend attack on Venezuela and the reported abduction of President Nicolas Maduro sent shockwaves across Latin America, sharpening fears of renewed, overt US interventionism. Mexico — the United States' neighbor and longtime partner — reacted with alarm after President Donald Trump publicly named several regional governments and suggested forceful options.

Immediate Reactions

In a Fox News interview after the Venezuela operation, Mr. Trump singled out Mexico, saying: "Something's going to have to be done with Mexico. She [President Claudia Sheinbaum] is very frightened of the cartels. They're running Mexico." He also invoked the Monroe Doctrine and quipped that the policy had been superseded by what he called the "Donroe Doctrine," while the US State Department posted an image of the president with the caption: "This is OUR hemisphere."

Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum pushed back strongly. "We categorically reject intervention in the internal matters of other countries," she told reporters. "It is necessary to reaffirm that, in Mexico, the people rule and that we are a free and sovereign country. Cooperation, yes; subordination and intervention, no."

Historical Context

Mexican concerns are shaped by a long history of US interventions in the region. Key episodes remain vivid in the national memory: the US-Mexico War of 1846, which led to the annexation of vast territories; US involvement during the Mexican Revolution (1910–1920), including diplomatic meddling; the 1914 bombardment of Veracruz; and US incursions into northern Mexico in pursuit of Pancho Villa. As the historian Pablo Piccato notes, these events feed a persistent current of Mexican nationalism and wariness toward Washington. As Porfirio Díaz famously quipped, "Poor Mexico. So far from God, so close to the United States."

Bilateral Ties, Security Cooperation, And Red Lines

Despite the rhetoric, Mexico has continued pragmatic cooperation with the US on migration, security and trade. After facing a threat of 25 percent tariffs, President Sheinbaum agreed to deploy 10,000 National Guard troops to Mexico's northern border to help curb irregular migration and drug trafficking. Mexico has also maintained close security ties with Washington, including the extradition of suspected criminals: 29 suspects were extradited in February and another 26 in August, according to government statements.

Mexican officials and analysts emphasize that unilateral US military action on Mexican territory would be an inviolable red line. "Sheinbaum has gone out of her way to cooperate with the US," said Stephanie Brewer, director of the Mexico program at the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA). "There would be no rational reason to break this bilateral relationship by crossing the one red line Mexico has set out."

What Analysts Say

Observers say the strikes on Venezuela underscore a more assertive US posture in the region and make warnings from Washington more consequential. "I don’t think US strikes on Mexican territory are any more or less likely than they were before the attacks in Venezuela," Brewer added. "But they do make it abundantly clear that the Trump administration’s threats need to be taken seriously, and that the US is willing to violate international law in its use of military force."

"Sheinbaum is doing a balancing act on an increasingly thin wire," Brewer said, reflecting the tension between cooperation and defending sovereignty.

As the region watches closely, the episode has renewed debate about how Mexico should manage ties with a powerful neighbour whose rhetoric and actions evoke fraught historical memories.