Marc Short, a former aide to Mike Pence, told Politico that Americans appear to favor divided government — a trend he believes could give Democrats an advantage in the 2026 midterms. He cited historical backlash when one party holds unified power but said huge wave swings like 2010 or 2018 are unlikely. Short warned that gerrymandered maps limit competitive seats, while economic concerns, redistricting fights and campaign activity from figures like Donald Trump will shape the outcome.
Former Pence Aide: Democrats Poised To Have Edge In 2026 Midterms As Voters Favor Divided Government
Marc Short, a former aide to Vice President Mike Pence and now chair of the conservative group Advancing American Freedom, told Politico this week that recent Democratic victories and Americans' apparent preference for divided government could give Democrats an advantage in the 2026 midterms.
What Marc Short Said
Speaking to Politico's Dasha Burns on C-SPAN's "Ceasefire," Short argued that when one party controls the presidency and Congress there is frequently a voter backlash. He said recent patterns — Republican gains after GOP control in 2010 and 2018, and Democratic gains in 2022 after unified Democratic control — suggest 2026 could be "a Democrat year."
"I think it's going to be a really steep climb... The reality is that Americans like divided government. They don't want one party in control," Short told Burns.
Why The Outlook Is Mixed
Short cautioned that large wave swings like the Republicans' 63-seat pickup in 2010 or the big 2018 gains are unlikely to be repeated. Still, with razor-thin margins in some chambers, even a small shift of one or two seats could determine control. He also noted that gerrymandered district maps on both sides have reduced the number of truly competitive seats.
"You'd rather have [Trump] there than not, but I don't think it's a big game changer," Short said when asked whether former President Donald Trump's active campaigning would decisively alter the outcome.
Broader Political Context
Democrats recorded a series of off-year wins in 2025 — from gubernatorial races to mayoral contests — and have widened their target lists ahead of 2026. Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin and other party leaders have credited much of their momentum to messaging around affordability.
Many Republicans have been unsettled by recent losses and underperformances in places such as New Jersey and Virginia. Allies of President Trump have blamed the record-long government shutdown and Senate filibuster rules for some GOP difficulties, and Trump is expected to be a frequent presence on the campaign trail as Republicans seek to protect slim majorities.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich warned that the GOP would be "in real trouble" if the economy does not recover. Polling cited by party strategists shows a notable share of voters say they would prefer a Democrat to represent them in 2026, often citing affordability and rising prices — even as the president has described the economy as an "A-plus plus."
Finally, ongoing redistricting battles around the country and continued gerrymandering add further uncertainty about which seats will be competitive and how much control either party can realistically expect to gain or lose.
Source: Politico/C-SPAN reporting summarized from Marc Short's interview; additional context from party statements and recent polling.
