Mid‑Decade Redistricting Shapes the 2026 House Battle: Democratic Gains and Party Roadblocks

Democrats have scored several mid‑decade redistricting victories across the country, but building on those gains faces resistance in some Democratic‑aligned states. The outcomes of these fights will help determine control of the U.S. House after the 2026 midterms and could shape the legislative agenda of President Donald Trump’s second term.

Why both parties are racing to redraw maps

Control of the House after the 2026 midterms could hinge on only a handful of seats. As of this reporting, Republicans hold 219 seats, Democrats 214, with two vacancies. If all seats are filled by Election Day 2026, Democrats would need a net gain of three seats to flip the chamber and blunt Trump’s agenda; Republicans are trying to defend their narrow majority and keep advancing their priorities. That slim margin means disputes over a small number of districts can be decisive.

How redistricting is changing the battleground

The mid‑decade redistricting scramble has also shrunk the pool of truly competitive races. The Cook Political Report, accounting for states that have already redrawn maps, listed only 16 House seats as toss‑ups out of 435.

Early Republican moves and Democratic responses

At first, the rush to redraw lines appeared to favor Republicans. Texas lawmakers approved a map that alters five districts in ways that could favor GOP candidates, while Republican‑controlled legislatures or commissions in Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio adopted maps that may flip at least one seat in each state. Republican legislatures in Florida, Kansas and Louisiana have also discussed changes that could reduce Democratic opportunities.

Kansas is a notable standoff: state Republicans have discussed redrawing the map to target Rep. Sharice Davids, the state’s lone Democrat in Congress. Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly opposes mid‑decade redistricting, and GOP legislators have said they cannot gather enough signatures to force a special session to override her.

A pending U.S. Supreme Court decision in a Louisiana case could also prompt map changes that favor Republicans depending on how the Court rules.

Key Democratic victories

Democrats have pushed back in several places. California voters approved Proposition 50, a ballot measure that will produce a new congressional map designed to make five districts more competitive or more favorable to Democrats. The map faces legal challenges in which the Department of Justice has joined Republican plaintiffs; Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office criticized the legal challenge as an attempt to overturn voters’ will.

In Utah, a judge ordered the state to adopt a plaintiffs’ map that creates a Salt Lake City‑centered district that analysts say favors Democrats. Utah’s four‑member House delegation is currently all Republican, but the new map opens the door to a Democratic pickup; former Rep. Ben McAdams has announced he will run for the new district.

Divisions within Democratic states

Despite those wins, Democratic momentum is uneven. In Maryland, Gov. Wes Moore created an advisory commission on redistricting, but state Senate President Bill Ferguson has warned Democrats against mid‑cycle changes, arguing in a letter that the legal and political risks are high:

“Mid‑cycle redistricting for Maryland presents a reality where the legal risks are too high, the timeline for action is dangerous, the downside risk to Democrats is catastrophic, and the certainty of our existing map would be undermined.”

Meanwhile, Maryland U.S. Reps. Jamie Raskin and Steny Hoyer urged fellow Democrats to pursue changes to make seats more competitive. Illinois Democrats have also expressed reluctance to pursue mid‑decade changes despite pressure from national leaders, and in Virginia a legislative effort to restore legislative control over congressional maps is moving through procedural steps even as Democrats retain control of key statewide offices.

Voters, timelines and what to watch

Polls show widespread public skepticism about partisan mapmaking. A September Marquette University Law School poll found 70% of U.S. adults oppose states redrawing districts specifically to advantage the party in power.

How long the battles continue may hinge on state candidate filing deadlines. For example, Maryland’s congressional primary filing deadline is Feb. 24, while Kansas’s is June 1. If legislatures have not enacted new maps by those dates, candidates will likely file under existing boundaries, though lawsuits and later legislative action can still alter the landscape.

The ultimate test will be the midterm elections on Nov. 3, 2026: results that year will show whether redistricting shifts produced net gains for Republicans, Democrats, or left the two sides at a stalemate — and what that outcome means for the remainder of the presidential agenda.

Reporting contributions: ABC News reporters Brittany Shepherd, Emily Chang, Halle Troadec and Alex Mallin.