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Study: Mass Starvation From Collapsed Sardine Stocks Drove African Penguin Die-Offs

10:21 AM, 12/05/2025
Study: Mass Starvation From Collapsed Sardine Stocks Drove African Penguin Die-Offs

A University of Exeter and South African government study concludes that mass starvation — caused by a dramatic drop in sardine stocks due to fishing and environmental change — led to the collapse of two major African penguin colonies near Cape Town between 2004 and 2011, with an estimated 62,000 breeding birds lost. The species has declined nearly 80% in 30 years and, with fewer than 10,000 breeding pairs remaining and an IUCN Critically Endangered listing, could be extinct in the wild by 2035 unless urgent conservation measures succeed.

Mass Starvation Behind Collapse Of Key African Penguin Colonies

A new study by the University of Exeter and South Africa's Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment finds that severe food shortages — driven by a collapse in local sardine stocks — likely caused mass starvation of African penguins off the coast of South Africa. Two major breeding colonies near Cape Town collapsed between 2004 and 2011, with researchers estimating around 62,000 breeding birds were lost during that period.

Co-author and biologist Richard Sherley said that, over those eight years, sardine abundance in South African waters remained consistently below 25 percent of recorded peak levels. The study attributes the decline in sardine numbers to a combination of commercial fishing pressure and environmental changes, including shifts in sea temperature and salinity.

"This appears to have caused severe food shortage for African penguins, leading to an estimated loss of about 62,000 breeding individuals," Sherley said.

The global population of African penguins has fallen by nearly 80 percent over the past 30 years. With fewer than 10,000 breeding pairs now estimated worldwide, the species was listed as Critically Endangered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) last year. Conservationists warn that, if current trends continue, the penguin could be extinct in the wild by 2035.

Conservation Actions and Challenges

Authorities have imposed a commercial fishing exclusion zone around six penguin colonies for the past decade, including the two analyzed in the study: Robben Island and Dassen Island. Other measures include providing artificial nests and attempts to establish new colonies to improve breeding success.

However, recovery faces additional pressures: tourism is an important source of revenue and public support but can also disturb colonies and increase stress for the birds if not carefully managed.

The study highlights the urgent need for integrated management that combines fishing regulation, habitat protection, monitoring of prey species, and carefully controlled tourism to give African penguins a chance to recover.

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Study: Mass Starvation From Collapsed Sardine Stocks Drove African Penguin Die-Offs - CRBC News