Greene’s Resignation Heightens Pressure on Speaker Mike Johnson Ahead of Critical Funding Votes

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Ga.) surprise announcement that she will resign from Congress has added a new layer of uncertainty for House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) as he seeks to hold together a fragile GOP majority ahead of a series of high-stakes votes.

On paper the math is unchanged: Republicans hold a 219-213 edge, which means Johnson can typically afford to lose two GOP votes on a party-line roll call assuming full attendance and unified Democratic opposition. But Greene’s departure on Jan. 5 removes a reliably visible — if sometimes unpredictable — voice from the chamber, and could shift momentum in close, high-profile fights.

Key timing and special elections

Republicans are favored to keep the Tennessee seat vacated by Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.) in a Dec. 2 special election, which would effectively preserve Johnson’s two-vote cushion once Greene leaves. A Jan. 31 special election runoff in Texas is expected by many to favor the Democrat, leaving the net margin largely the same in the near term. Still, the coming weeks are dense with deadlines: Johnson must shepherd either nine remaining appropriations bills or a short-term continuing resolution to avoid a government funding lapse by Jan. 30.

Why Greene’s exit matters

Greene’s resignation could complicate Johnson’s efforts in several ways. He has repeatedly struggled to unify a fractious conference — most recently when a small group of Republicans, including Greene, joined with Democrats to force the release of the Epstein files. That episode and growing dissent over proposals such as a ban on congressional stock trading and tougher sanctions on countries enabling Russia’s war in Ukraine illustrate the fault lines within the GOP.

Even a handful of defections on appropriations or other must-pass measures could force Johnson to seek concessions, horse-trade with moderates, or rely on bipartisan coalitions to advance legislation. Conservative holdouts like Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) are already expected to oppose certain spending measures, and the possibility of additional high-profile departures or internal challenges raises the stakes.

Discharge petitions and internal pressure

Several members have filed or signaled plans to file discharge petitions — a rare procedural move intended to force floor consideration of broadly supported measures — following the Epstein petition’s success. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) has indicated she would press a petition on a congressional stock-trading ban, while Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) filed a petition to compel a vote on a sanctions bill aimed at countries that enable Russia’s aggression.

If leadership resists these petitions, the resulting clashes could be intense: with a razor-thin majority, a small number of GOP defections can determine outcomes.

“Mike Johnson as Speaker has never known easy. He has never had a working majority during his entire tenure,” said Republican strategist Brian Robinson. “With such a razor-thin majority, you’re going to have wins and losses, and because you still have to govern, you still have to get things done.”

Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), a member of the House Freedom Caucus, emphasized party resilience: “We never counted on Democrat votes anyway. We still have the gavel and the ability to navigate legislation and push the president’s priorities,” he said. Meanwhile Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), who is helping lead the sanctions effort, argued that broad bipartisan majorities — when they form — can ultimately carry bills even over leadership objections.

Leadership priorities and the coming test

Beyond funding, Johnson has signaled goals that include codifying certain executive actions, advancing regulatory rollbacks described as reversing "Biden-era" rules, and pursuing elements of a cost-of-living agenda tied to the former president’s priorities. Johnson has shown an ability to marshal votes in the past, but the combination of narrow margins, internal dissension and fast-approaching deadlines will test his capacity to negotiate, compromise and prioritize.

Voices inside the conference

Greene framed her resignation as disillusionment with the political system, saying in a statement that “Americans are used by the Political Industrial Complex of both Political Parties” and that the system fails the “common American man or woman.” Some colleagues — including Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) — publicly acknowledged elements of that frustration.

Others argue Greene’s departure could ultimately strengthen Johnson by removing a persistent internal critic and reducing some public divisions. “In the longer run, this is going to strengthen his hand,” Rep. Don Bacon said, adding that the conference could become more unified without her sharp public confrontations with leadership.

Whichever direction the conference moves, Johnson’s leadership will face an immediate stretch of delicate choices: which measures to place on the floor, how much to concede to restive members, and whether to rely on bipartisan votes to pass high-profile priorities — all against the backdrop of tight arithmetic and looming deadlines.