Bolsonaro's Arrest Tests Brazil’s Democracy as Supreme Court Acts Amid Years of Strife

Brazil’s democracy tightened another notch when former president Jair Bolsonaro was placed in preventive custody after justices said he attempted to tamper with an ankle monitor and posed a flight risk. The move — rare and severe for a former head of state — came after years of escalating clashes between Bolsonaro, his allies and Brazil’s institutions.

Background: a long-running institutional confrontation

Bolsonaro’s presidency and his post-presidential conduct repeatedly pushed Brazil’s legal and political systems to work beyond their normal roles. From coordinated online disinformation and threats against public figures to efforts that investigators say sought to overturn election results, his actions forced courts, prosecutors and investigators into highly visible, politically charged positions.

Digital campaigns and the "fake news" inquiry

Investigations showed that actors close to Bolsonaro ran extensive, coordinated online campaigns spreading disinformation and targeting judges, journalists, health officials and lawmakers. When prosecutors declined to pursue some of those networks, the Supreme Court invoked an rarely used provision to open what became known as the "fake news" inquiry, authorizing the mapping of digital militias tied to Bolsonaro’s orbit. The inquiry was unprecedented and controversial, but it created a legal framework the court later used to confront growing threats.

Pandemic-era conflicts

The Covid-19 pandemic deepened institutional tensions. Brazil suffered one of the highest death tolls in the world, and Bolsonaro’s public dismissal of the virus, attacks on public-health officials, and promotion of unproven treatments intensified conflicts with other branches of government. The Supreme Court intervened at several points — ordering the release of health data, supporting access to vaccines and upholding governors’ and mayors’ authority to impose protective measures — effectively acting as a backstop where the executive branch had failed to lead.

January 8 and the post-election fallout

After Bolsonaro’s 2022 election defeat, pro-Bolsonaro rioters stormed government buildings in Brasília on January 8, 2023. Federal investigators later uncovered plots and discussions — including intercepted communications about deploying security forces and proposals to overturn the election — that began in the immediate aftermath of the vote. These developments reinforced the judiciary’s determination to act decisively.

Why the judiciary has been central

Observers say the judiciary’s prominent role stems in part from broader political dynamics. Filipe Campante, a Johns Hopkins professor who studies Brazil and comparative politics, argues that institutional imbalances and a politically fragmented Congress left the Supreme Court to shoulder much of the response.

"The protagonism the judiciary, and the Supreme Court in particular, has taken on comes from a deeper institutional imbalance," Campante said, noting that parts of the political class were unwilling or unable to confront Bolsonaro directly.

International comparisons and implications

Analysts have compared Brazil’s turbulent trajectory to other democracies that have faced post-election crises, noting important differences in how institutions responded. While comparisons to events such as the January 6, 2021 attack in the United States highlight shared risks, Brazil’s path has been more interventionist — messy and improvised, some say, but signaling that attempts to subvert democratic outcomes can carry concrete consequences.

What comes next

Saturday’s preventive custody is part of a broader arc in which Brazil’s institutions have repeatedly been tested and, in many cases, pushed beyond their customary boundaries. The episode highlights both strengths and vulnerabilities: a judiciary willing to act to defend democratic order, and a political system that in some moments deferred responsibility rather than confronting threats earlier.

As Bolsonaro’s appeals proceed, Brazil remains bruised and improvising. Still, many observers view recent actions as a form of democratic self-defense — imperfect, contested and sure to shape the country’s institutional balance for years to come.