US, Russia and Saudi Arabia Forge an 'Axis of Obstruction' as COP30 Falters

For the first time in three decades of annual UN climate meetings, the United States did not send an official delegation to COP30 in Belém, Brazil — a decision that underscored the administration's scepticism about mainstream climate science. The absence coincided with intense lobbying by oil-producing nations and ultimately left negotiators unable to agree on language to phase out coal, oil and gas.

After prolonged negotiations, the final COP30 text omitted any explicit reference to "fossil fuels" following fierce opposition led by Saudi Arabia and supported by Russia, the UAE and, indirectly, the US. That omission prompted critics to describe the outcome as the result of an emerging "axis of obstruction" that has stalled stronger climate commitments.

What negotiators said

Michael Jacobs of ODI and the University of Sheffield described the talks as revealing "an increasingly bitter conflict at the heart of global climate politics: between those who accept the scientific fact that to deal with climate change the world must wean itself off fossil fuels over the coming decades; and those who are actively resisting this in pursuit of their short-term energy interests."

"I think today we have witnessed what the three countries have agreed... Geopolitically, this is the creation of a new axis of obstruction — actively promoting fossil fuels and opposed to climate action," Jacobs said, pointing to recent bilateral engagements among the United States, Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Roughly 90 countries, including many European states, had pushed for a clear roadmap to phase out fossil fuels. Frustrated by the slow, consensus-driven UN process, that coalition plans to convene a separate summit in Colombia in April to press for stronger, faster action.

Domestic policy mirrors diplomacy

Observers noted that Washington's domestic policy moves mirrored its international posture. During the COP30 period, the administration advanced rollbacks of environmental protections for streams and wetlands, tightened criteria for listing endangered species, and opened more than one billion acres of US waters to potential oil and gas leasing — including new areas in the Arctic and proposals for drilling off California's coast.

California Governor Gavin Newsom vowed to oppose offshore drilling plans, saying they would happen "over my dead body." A White House spokesperson defended the administration's approach, arguing it protects economic and national security and criticising climate advocates.

Signs the energy transition continues

Despite the diplomatic setback in Belém, several indicators suggest the global shift away from fossil fuels is proceeding. Global investment in renewables such as wind and solar was about double that in traditional energy sources last year. China, in particular, is asserting itself as a clean-energy industrial power and now earns substantial revenue from exporting green technologies.

Public opinion within the United States also runs counter to the administration's rollback: majorities of American voters oppose withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and express concern about extreme heat, floods and storms that raise insurance costs and threaten public health.

"Ultimately, petrostates, the fossil-fuel industry, and their allies are losing power," former vice-president Al Gore said after COP30. "They may be able to veto diplomatic language, but they can't veto real-world action."

While the coalition described as an "axis of obstruction" may delay diplomatic progress, analysts say it is unlikely to stop technological and market-driven shifts toward cleaner energy. Many governments, investors and companies are already moving ahead with policies and projects that reduce emissions irrespective of the language in UN communiqués.