Rare US–China Satellite Coordination Highlights Growing Risks in Crowded Orbit

US and Chinese Space Agencies Coordinate to Avoid a Collision — A Sign of Rising Orbital Risk

Chinese and American space agencies recently carried out a rare, direct coordination to adjust satellite orbits and avert a potential collision — an unusual example of cooperation as low-Earth orbit becomes increasingly congested.

“We had a bit of a celebration because, for the first time, the Chinese National Space Agency reached out to us and said, 'We see a conjunction amongst our satellites. We recommend you hold still. We'll do the manoeuvre.' And that's the first time that's ever happened,”

Alvin Drew, director of NASA’s Space Sustainability program, said at the International Astronautical Congress in Sydney.

Why this matters

The episode underscores growing concerns from the rapid deployment of so-called megaconstellations. Experts estimate roughly 200,000 objects between 1 cm and 10 cm and tens of thousands of objects larger than 10 cm now crowd low-Earth orbit — the region where most communications and Earth-observing satellites operate. Even small debris can cause severe damage at orbital velocities.

One prominent contributor to the density in low-Earth orbit is SpaceX’s Starlink. As many as 8,500 of the roughly 12,955 active satellites in LEO — just over 65 percent — belong to Starlink. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has said he hopes the constellation will eventually exceed 42,000 satellites, although the company currently has permission to launch up to 12,000.

China has also announced ambitious plans, aiming to field more than 10,000 satellites by the 2030s. The combined build-out by commercial and national operators significantly increases the likelihood of close approaches, collisions and subsequent debris generation.

Barriers to formal cooperation

Despite the shared risks, formal cooperation between Chinese and American space agencies remains limited. The 2011 Wolf Amendment restricts NASA from using federal funds for bilateral cooperation with China or Chinese companies unless Congress explicitly approves such cooperation. That legal barrier has made direct, routine coordination difficult even when safety concerns overlap.

Informal or case-by-case exchanges — like the recent contact from the Chinese National Space Administration — show that practical safety needs can sometimes spur communication despite political constraints. But experts say that more systematic, transparent mechanisms for space traffic coordination are needed to reduce collision risk.

Real-world consequences and scientific impact

The risks are not merely theoretical. Earlier this week, three astronauts were temporarily stranded aboard China’s Tiangong space station after their return capsule was struck by suspected orbital debris, delaying their planned departure.

Researchers and astronomers also warn that the explosion of satellites is degrading astronomical observations. As legal scholar David Koplow explained:

“As the satellites overfly the observatories, they block the views of remote objects and phenomena, leaving obliterating white streaks on the collected imagery, and obscuring access to troves of vital data from distant sources of cosmic light and radio waves.”

Writing in the Vanderbilt Journal of Transnational Law, Koplow added that as tens of thousands more satellites and associated mission debris are launched into orbit, “the dangers of congestion, collisions, and interference will soar accordingly.”

Looking ahead

Experts call for better international norms, improved data sharing, and technological solutions — such as more reliable tracking, automated collision-avoidance coordination, and stronger debris mitigation standards — to manage the growing hazards. The recent US–China exchange shows that cooperation is possible; the challenge now is to make safety-focused communication routine rather than exceptional.