India's Climate Crossroads: Balancing Green Ambitions with Rapid Growth Ahead of COP30

India stands at a pivotal moment: the world's most populous nation and the third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases is rapidly expanding energy supply while trying to meet ambitious climate commitments. Ahead of COP30 in Brazil, New Delhi must reconcile development needs, soaring electricity demand and international pressure for stronger climate action.

Emissions

In 2024 India emitted about 4.4 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent, putting it behind only China and the United States in total emissions. Spread across a population of roughly 1.4 billion, however, its per-capita emissions and historical contribution to global warming remain far lower than those of many wealthy nations. India has pledged to reach net-zero by 2070 and appears on track to meet or exceed its 2030 commitment to cut emissions intensity by 45% from 2005 levels.

Electricity

Coal dominates India's power mix, producing around 75% of electricity and making the country the world's second-largest coal consumer. This year non-fossil sources accounted for 50% of installed capacity — a target met five years early — but installed capacity has not yet translated into equivalent clean generation. Electricity demand is projected to more than double by 2047, according to the Centre for Science and Environment, increasing pressure to expand reliable generation rapidly. India is currently off-track for a domestic goal of 43% renewable generation by 2030, and electric vehicles remain a small share of the market (about 2.5% of cars sold last year, per S&P Global).

Future goals

Under the Paris Agreement, India must submit a clearer roadmap with interim milestones through 2035. Analysts expect New Delhi's near-term targets to be cautious and achievable, leaving room to overperform. One likely announcement could be a declared peak emissions year — possibly between 2040 and 2045 — after which emissions would be gradually reduced toward the 2070 net-zero target.

Aman Srivastava, climate policy fellow at Sustainable Futures Collaborative, suggested India might also raise its emission-intensity target into the 50–55% range and shift the emphasis from installed renewable capacity to actual non-fossil electricity generation.

Challenges

India stresses that its climate agenda is inseparable from development priorities: job creation, infrastructure expansion, energy security and poverty reduction. A recent estimate cited by Indian policymakers suggests the country could need up to $21 trillion to meet climate goals while securing development objectives. Nakul Sharma and Madhura Joshi of E3G note that India must juggle multiple, often competing priorities as it scales up clean energy while ensuring affordable and reliable power for its population.

Climate diplomacy

At COP30, India is likely to continue voicing the concerns of developing countries and to press wealthy nations for more climate finance, arguing their historic responsibility for emissions. New Delhi was critical of last year's global finance target as inadequate and may offer conditional, two-tier commitments — more ambitious pledges tied to increased international support.

Conclusion

India's path to reconcile development and decarbonisation is complex. The country has made measurable progress on capacity and intensity targets, but translating capacity into clean generation, managing a projected surge in electricity demand, and securing large-scale finance remain major hurdles. How India frames its near-term targets and finance requests at COP30 will be crucial for both domestic policy and global climate trust.