At a Durant rally, Donald Trump urged supporters to "pretend" he's on the midterm ballot, warning that a Republican loss could lead to his impeachment. California Governor Gavin Newsom mocked the plea on social media. Prediction markets disagree: Polymarket shows a 2% chance of impeachment by Dec. 31, 2026 (rising to 58% by Dec. 31, 2027), while Kalshi places the odds at about 62% before the end of Trump's term. The article notes the constitutional impeachment process and that Trump has been impeached twice without conviction.
Trump Warns 'They'll End Up Impeaching Me' If Republicans Lose Midterms — Prediction Markets Split, Newsom Fires Back
President Trump was furious the ceasefire between Iran and Israel was in jeopardy (Credit: Photo Courtesy: Andrew Leyden on Shutterstock.com)
At a Thursday rally in Durant, Oklahoma, former President Donald Trump urged supporters to cast midterm ballots as if he were on the ticket — warning that if Republicans lose, "they'll end up impeaching me." California Governor Gavin Newsom quickly mocked the plea on social media, responding, "Please vote like Donald Trump is running."
Prediction Markets Give Mixed Signals
Markets that let bettors price political outcomes show divergent odds for an impeachment. Polymarket, a prediction market built on the Polygon blockchain, currently places only a 2% probability on impeachment before Dec. 31, 2026, while the same market's odds rise to 58% for impeachment before Dec. 31, 2027. By contrast, Kalshi's market assigns roughly a 62% chance that Trump will be impeached before completing his term.
Political Context And Reactions
Newsom has repeatedly criticized Trump on several fronts, including his handling of inflation, regulation of artificial intelligence, rising gasoline and diesel prices, U.S. policy on the war with Iran, and various cryptocurrency projects such as memecoins. Recent polling shows just 19% approval for Trump's handling of inflation in September — one of the weakest readings recorded for any president on that metric.
Source: Polymarket
Trump at the rally: 'Pretend I'm running, please. Just because I am on the ballot and if we don't win, they'll end up impeaching me.'
Kalshi and Benzinga maintain a data collaboration agreement. Bettors' pricing on different platforms reflects varying participant bases, market mechanics and time horizons, which can produce widely different probability estimates for the same outcome.
How Impeachment Works
Under the Constitution, the U.S. House of Representatives has the exclusive authority to initiate impeachment proceedings. If the House approves articles of impeachment, the Senate then conducts a trial to determine whether to convict and remove the president. Trump remains the only U.S. president to have been impeached twice; neither proceeding resulted in a Senate conviction.
Disclosure: Benzinga has a data collaboration agreement with Kalshi. This article is informational and not investment advice.
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