The PPIC poll finds Proposition 40 — a one-time, 5% wealth tax on billionaires — narrowly leading with 52% support. Two rival measures designed to block the tax, Propositions 41 and 42, also poll ahead at 51% and 54% respectively. A Sergey Brin-backed coalition has reserved about $100 million in airtime and spent tens of millions since late July, giving opponents a major financial edge. Meanwhile, Proposition 3, which would permanently preserve a 2012 tax increase on top earners, enjoys stronger support at 58%.
Poll: California Wealth Tax Holds Slim Lead as Rival Anti-Tax Measures Also Poll Ahead
Poll: California wealth tax holds narrow lead
A new Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll shows that a proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on billionaires is holding a narrow lead, but two rival ballot initiatives designed to block it are polling at similar levels.
Poll Results
Proposition 40, the proposed one-time 5% levy on billionaires' assets, has the support of 52% of likely voters in the PPIC survey. That margin is fragile as opponents prepare a major advertising push.
Two measures explicitly crafted to invalidate the wealth tax also show slim leads: Proposition 41 received 51% support in the poll; it would require audits of state spending and, because of how it allocates funds, would effectively nullify Prop 40. Proposition 42, which would bar taxes on financial assets such as stocks and other investments, polled at 54%.
Campaign Money And Strategy
Both anti-wealth-tax initiatives were drafted as part of a coordinated effort by a coalition of billionaires led by Google co-founder Sergey Brin. Under California law, if conflicting ballot measures both pass, the measure with the higher vote total takes effect.
The opposition has a substantial financial advantage: a Brin-backed group has reserved roughly $100 million in television airtime and has spent about $41.5 million specifically opposing Prop 40 and another $32 million supporting the two anti-wealth-tax measures since the proposals qualified in late July.
Other Factors
Organizers behind the wealth tax face additional challenges: Dave Regan, the leader of the union promoting Prop 40, is facing allegations of misconduct that he strongly denies.
Separately, Proposition 3 — a separate labor-backed measure that would permanently codify a 2012 income tax increase on California's highest earners — showed stronger support, drawing 58% backing in the PPIC poll. That margin is one of the widest among the measures surveyed and provides some relief to supporters who feared Prop 3 might be dragged down by controversy around the wealth tax.
Bottom line: The contest remains fluid. Narrow poll leads for both the wealth tax and the measures designed to nullify it, combined with a large spending advantage for opponents, mean the outcome could hinge on late advertising and turnout.
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