The New Hampshire contest to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen has shifted toward Republicans after the Cook Political Report moved the race from Lean Democratic to Toss Up. Recent polls show a tightening matchup between former Sen. John Sununu and Rep. Chris Pappas, and national GOP groups are on track to hold roughly a $20 million spending advantage. A September poll finds the candidates tied at 46% with 9% undecided and modestly negative favorability ratings for both. Analysts say the mix of a well-known GOP candidate, an open seat and outside money explains the change and forces Democrats to defend the state.
New Hampshire Senate Race Tilts Toward Republicans As Cook Moves Contest To Toss Up
Voters cast their ballots in the primary for midterm elections at Sanbornton Town Hall on September 8, 2026, in Sanbornton, New Hampshire. (Photo by CJ Gunther/Getty Images)
The contest to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire has moved toward Republicans after the Cook Political Report shifted its rating from Lean Democratic to Toss Up. Former Republican senator John Sununu and Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas now head into a nationally watched general election that looks increasingly competitive.
Recent polls show a narrowing race. A University of New Hampshire (UNH) survey in late August found Sununu at 45% and Pappas at 43% among likely voters. An earlier August poll from Saint Anselm College showed Pappas leading 48% to 41%. RealClearPolitics currently lists the contest as a Toss Up, with a polling average of roughly 45.5% for Pappas and 41.5% for Sununu.
A September Co/efficient survey puts the candidates tied at 46% each, with 9% undecided. That poll interviewed 958 likely general-election voters in New Hampshire between September 9–11, 2026, and reported a margin of error of 3.15 percentage points. The same survey measured favorability: Pappas was 37% favorable and 51% unfavorable (13% no opinion), while Sununu was 41% favorable and 47% unfavorable (12% no opinion).
National Republican groups have poured substantial resources into the race. Cook notes the GOP is on pace to hold an approximately $20 million spending advantage in New Hampshire, and that "Sununu allies have already outspent pro-Pappas groups by almost a 2-1 margin." That outside spending, combined with tightening polls and an open Democratic seat, helps explain the shift in Cook's rating.
Cook added that while some Democratic polls still show a lead for Pappas, GOP surveys have shown the race tied or with Sununu ahead. "It is possible that most of the undecided voters will ultimately break for Democrats, but it's hard to forecast outcomes in the famously independently-minded state until the race fully engages," the forecaster wrote.
Political analysts say the combination of a well-known Republican nominee, an open Democratic seat and heavy outside spending is a warning sign for Democrats. Craig Agranoff, a political scientist at Florida Atlantic University, told Newsweek that the mix — not any single poll — is what can turn a Lean Democratic race into a toss-up, forcing Democrats to devote time and money to defend the seat.
The shift is noteworthy because New Hampshire has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 2010. Sununu, who previously served in the Senate, won the Republican nomination earlier this month; Pappas won the Democratic nomination. Both are expected to draw significant national attention as Democrats try to retake the Senate and Republicans aim to hold their narrow majority.
Newsweek contacted both campaigns for comment. The story relied on multiple public polls and statements from forecasters; Newsweek reporters and editors also used the AI assistant Martyn in producing this article.
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