New Hampshire’s open Senate race between Chris Pappas and John Sununu has tightened and moved into toss-up territory. Recent polls and rating shifts, a large bloc of undeclared voters (~40%), and high outside spending pledges have raised alarm among Democrats. Key issues include the fallout from tariffs with Canada and mounting housing affordability concerns, and national Democrats are increasingly active on the ground.
Why Democrats Can’t Overlook New Hampshire’s Tight Senate Race
The Crucial Senate Race Dems Are Forgetting About
The open New Hampshire Senate contest between Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John Sununu has tightened, and national Democrats may need to devote more attention and resources to hold the seat. Recent polls and rating shifts have moved the race into toss-up territory, while outside spending pledges and local issues like tariffs and housing affordability make the outcome uncertain.
A Closer Race Than Many Expect
Throughout the summer, Pappas—who represents New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District and is running to replace retiring Senator Jeanne Shaheen—generally led narrowly in statewide polls. A late-August survey, however, showed Sununu up by two points, and political handicappers have adjusted their outlooks: Inside Elections moved the contest from “Tilt Democratic” to “Toss-Up” on September 3, while the Cook Political Report currently rates it “Lean Democratic.” Those moves have prompted local experts to warn Democrats not to take the race for granted.
What Each Candidate Brings
John Sununu brings high name recognition from his prior service in Congress and the popularity of his brother, former governor Chris Sununu. Observers say Sununu has downplayed his endorsement from former President Donald Trump and emphasized a message of civility and competence in government. "For a lot of voters, they see [Sununu] as sort of a throwback in a good way," said Christopher Galdieri, a political scientist at Saint Anselm College.
Chris Pappas has structural advantages in the state: New Hampshire’s congressional delegation is Democratic, and a large share of voters are undeclared (roughly 40 percent). Pappas’s campaign is emphasizing the economic impact of recent tariff disputes with Canada and broader affordability concerns, while trying to tie Sununu to Trump-era policies.
Key Issues: Trade, Housing, And Affordability
Tariffs and their fallout—especially diminished Canadian tourism—have been cited as a drag on New Hampshire’s economy. Local experts say trade barriers have exacerbated affordability pressures in the Granite State. Housing remains another central issue: voters and academics alike want credible proposals to address high property taxes and limited housing supply.
Voter Dynamics
Undeclared voters—about 40 percent of the electorate—tend to be fiscally conservative and socially moderate-to-liberal. Pappas’s success in the competitive 1st District since 2018 suggests he can appeal to many independents, but turnout and persuasion will be decisive in a close statewide contest.
Money And Outside Spending
Outside groups are preparing substantial investments. Democratic-aligned WinSenate, associated with the Senate Majority PAC, plans to spend more than $10 million on television ads in New Hampshire. The Senate Leadership Fund—the top Senate GOP external group—has pledged roughly $17 million, and America PAC (backed by Elon Musk) is also committing funds to boost conservative contenders. That potential spending gap has heightened concern among Pappas’s allies.
National Attention And What To Watch
National Democrats have already shown up on the ground: rumored presidential contenders like Senator Mark Kelly and Representative Ro Khanna have campaigned in New Hampshire recently, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg campaigned with Pappas in February and is scheduled to return for a party fundraiser. Key near-term indicators include subsequent polls, ad volume and messaging around tariffs and housing, and early independent voter trends.
Related Races And Events
Observers are also watching how Trump-era trade policies could shape races in the Midwest and New England—Ohio, in particular, where Canadian countermeasures may hit hard. In Texas’s 23rd District, Republican Brandon Herrera has faced criticism for offensive remarks, though that contest has limited public polling so far.
Bottom Line
The New Hampshire Senate race is more competitive than many Democrats assumed. With key issues—trade and housing—resonating locally, a large bloc of undeclared voters, and heavy outside spending looming, Democrats face a genuine test to retain the seat. There is still time to organize and spend strategically, but the margin for error appears slim.
—Emma Janssen / Heather Souvaine Horn
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