Tom Homan traded high‑profile raids for routine traffic‑stop, check‑in and airport arrests, and ICE set a monthly record with nearly 51,000 detentions in August. Net migration in 2025 fell to its lowest level since the Great Depression, leaving an estimated 2.3 million fewer undocumented immigrants than at the start of Trump’s second term. While supporters hail this as a policy win, analysts warn the measures have contributed to a 1.6 million decline in the labour force — a demographic shift that could slow long‑term economic growth.
Trump’s Deportation Drive: Success on the Ground, Unclear Political and Economic Payoff
Under Tom Homan, Ice achieved a new record for arrests in August, detaining almost 51,000 illegal aliens. | Credit: Andrew Harnik / Getty Images
When President Trump tasked Tom Homan with scaling back the highly visible Operation Metro Surge in Minneapolis, some critics saw a retreat. In practice, Homan shifted away from militarised raids and toward quieter, targeted enforcement—picking up undocumented migrants at routine traffic stops, immigration check‑ins and airports.
That low‑profile approach has been effective. In August, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) recorded a monthly high of nearly 51,000 arrests, marking the third consecutive month of record detentions. At the same time, net migration in 2025 fell to its lowest level since the Great Depression, and there are an estimated 2.3 million fewer undocumented immigrants in the United States than when Trump began his second term.
Political Gains — Or Missed Opportunities?
Supporters argue these results show Trump delivered on a central campaign promise to curb large‑scale migration. As The American Spectator’s Daniel J. Flynn observed, the administration achieved a dramatic reduction in arrivals and undocumented residents.
“Success engenders not gratitude but complacency,” critics of the political payoff say — meaning that even clear policy wins do not always translate into broad electoral rewards.
Longer‑Term Economic Concerns
Yet analysts warn the immigration measures that produced those declines carry tangible economic risks. Stuart Anderson and Mark Regets wrote in The Washington Post that strict restrictions on migration are a major factor behind a shrinking U.S. labour force: during Trump’s second term the workforce has fallen by about 1.6 million people.
By contrast, past administrations saw substantial labour‑force gains: Ronald Reagan’s terms added roughly 6.7 million and 8.7 million workers, while migration helped restore growth during Barack Obama’s presidencies (about 1.6 million and 3.9 million workers added, respectively). A declining labour supply makes sustained economic expansion more difficult and may slow productivity and wage growth over time.
What This Means
The administration’s enforcement strategy demonstrates that less dramatic, more systematic tactics can deliver large enforcement numbers. But the political and economic consequences are mixed: enforcement success has not guaranteed a political windfall, and many economists warn that the resulting smaller labour force could impose long‑term costs on the U.S. economy.
Sources: ICE detention reports; commentary from National Review, The American Spectator and The Washington Post.
Help us improve.
