Wisconsin: DSA-backed Francesca Hong is leading by double digits in July polling against David Crowley, who re-entered the Democratic gubernatorial primary in mid-July and received Gov. Tony Evers' endorsement. South Carolina: Darlene Graham, appointed to her late brother's Senate seat and backed by Donald Trump, leads the RealClearPolitics average in a crowded Republican special primary, but she is unlikely to clear the 50% threshold — a runoff in two weeks is probable. Both races are being watched as tests of establishment power versus insurgent or outsider forces.
Primary Showdowns: DSA Upset Bid In Wisconsin — Runoff Likely In South Carolina
AP
Today’s primaries put two intraparty battles in the national spotlight: a potential upset by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) in Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary, and a crowded Republican special primary in South Carolina that may head to a runoff.
Wisconsin: DSA-Backed Francesca Hong vs. David Crowley
Francesca Hong, backed by the Democratic Socialists of America, is challenging Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley for the Democratic nomination for governor. Crowley had dropped out earlier in the cycle after struggling to gain traction, but he re-entered the race in mid-July following the abrupt collapse of former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes’ campaign. Crowley soon picked up the endorsement of outgoing Gov. Tony Evers.
That late establishment push has not, by most measures, slowed Hong: every poll conducted in July shows her leading by double digits. As primary day arrives in the Badger State, establishment backers will be watching closely and hoping polls aren’t as far off as they were in a recent contest in Michigan, where pre-election surveys overstated a candidate’s margin.
South Carolina: Special Senate Primary and a Likely Runoff
About 1,000 miles east, Republicans are contesting a special primary to fill the Senate seat vacated after the death of Sen. Lindsey Graham. Darlene Graham, his sister and the appointed interim senator, has won the endorsement of former President Donald Trump and currently leads the field in the RealClearPolitics average by roughly six points. Still, two of the six polls taken in the last month show Representative Ralph Norman with a narrow advantage, and in a five-way race it is unlikely any single candidate will surpass the 50%-plus-one threshold required to avoid a runoff.
If no candidate reaches an outright majority tonight, the top two vote-getters will advance to a runoff scheduled for two weeks from now — a scenario that will put the South Carolina contest back into intense national focus.
What To Watch
Key factors to monitor include turnout patterns in Milwaukee and other Democratic strongholds, late-breaking early voting returns, and whether the presence of multiple contenders in South Carolina fragments the vote enough to force a runoff. Both contests will be seen as early tests of establishment influence versus insurgent or outsider forces within each party.
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