Project Pluto predicts a Falcon 9 rocket upper stage will strike the Moon on Aug. 5, 2026, at about 2:35 a.m. EST, likely near Einstein Crater at roughly 5,400 mph. The stage came from a Jan. 15, 2025 SpaceX launch and has spent more than a year in extended Earth orbit before moving toward the Moon. Experts say the impact poses no hazard to Earth and is not expected to significantly affect the Moon, though it will add to lunar debris.
SpaceX Falcon 9 Upper Stage Predicted To Strike Moon On Aug. 5, 2026
Section of SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket expected to smash into the moon
Project Pluto predicts that an upper stage from a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will collide with the Moon on Aug. 5, 2026, at approximately 2:35 a.m. EST. The object is expected to impact near Einstein Crater at an estimated speed of about 5,400 miles per hour.
What We Know
The upper stage—roughly the height of a five‑story building—originated from a SpaceX launch on Jan. 15, 2025. Falcon 9 rockets use a detachable upper stage that separates from the booster during ascent to reduce mass and improve efficiency. While many retired stages either remain in Earth orbit for a time before reentering the atmosphere or are sent into solar orbit, this particular stage apparently lingered in an extended Earth orbit for more than a year and is now on a trajectory that will intersect the lunar surface.
The SpaceX Starship lifts off from Starbase near Boca Chica, Texas, on October 13, 2024, for the Starship Flight 5 test. SpaceX successfully "caught" the first-stage booster of its Starship megarocket Sunday as it returned to the launch pad after a test flight, a world first in the company's quest for rapid reusability.(Getty Images)
Context And Consequences
This will not be the first human‑made object to strike the Moon. NASA intentionally impacted upper stages from Apollo 13 and Apollo 17 decades ago for seismic and observational studies. According to experts cited by monitoring groups, the Falcon 9 upper stage poses no danger to people on Earth and is not expected to have a significant scientific or environmental effect on the Moon, though it will add another piece to the inventory of artificial debris on the lunar surface.
Prediction caveat: Impact timing and location are based on current orbital calculations and could be revised as trackers refine the object's trajectory.
Why It Matters
Even small impacts by human‑made objects help researchers study impact processes and improve models of orbital dynamics and space debris. Observers and amateur astronomers may monitor the predicted impact window for any flashes or ejecta, but no damage to Earth or lunar infrastructure is expected.
Key Details: Project Pluto prediction — Aug. 5, 2026, ~2:35 a.m. EST; impact site — near Einstein Crater; estimated impact speed — ~5,400 mph; origin — Falcon 9 upper stage from Jan. 15, 2025 launch.
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