Multiple high-quality polls this week put President Trump’s approval in the mid-30s — a rare and politically risky level. Reuters-Ipsos (36%), Strength in Numbers–Verasight (35%), AP-NORC (33%) and NBC (37%) join a month-long pattern: eight of nine CNN-tracked polls show approval in the 30s. Polls point to record-low economic ratings (31% approval on the economy in a CNN poll) and near-70% disapproval on inflation, while the Iran conflict and rising gas prices have eroded support on foreign policy and the economy.
Trump’s Approval Dips to Mid-30s — Could Iran Be a New Iraq Moment?
President George W. Bush speaks at the White House in April 2006. - Win McNamee/Getty Images/File
Nearly 20 years after President George W. Bush’s approval ratings slid into the 30s amid the Iraq war, President Donald Trump’s approval has fallen into similar territory in 2026 — and this time the foreign-policy flashpoint is Iran.
Three freshly released surveys place Trump’s approval in the mid-30s: 36% in Reuters-Ipsos, 35% in Strength in Numbers–Verasight and 33% in AP-NORC. Those results follow an NBC News poll that recorded a new low of 37%, and across the past month eight of nine high-quality polls tracked by CNN have shown Trump’s approval in the 30s.
How Bad Is It—and How Unusual?
Not every single poll is signaling an unprecedented low: some surveys recorded similar dips in 2017 or briefly after January 6, 2021. What is notable now is the breadth of the weakness. The CNN Poll of Polls averages Trump’s disapproval at 62%, a level that previously appeared only in isolated surveys during earlier low points.
President Donald Trump talks to members of the media aboard Air Force One, on April 17. - Evan Vucci/Reuters
Economic Pain and Foreign Policy
Voter concerns about the economy appear central to the slide. A recent CNN poll found Trump’s economic approval at a record-low 31%. CBS, Strength in Numbers and NBC polls show similar deterioration on voters’ economic assessments. Disapproval of his handling of inflation has climbed to roughly 70%.
At the same time, the Iran conflict is emerging as a major liability. The NBC survey found about two-thirds of Americans disapproved of Trump’s handling of the Iran war; the earlier CNN poll showed 67% disapproval on Iran policy versus 69% on the economy and 72% on inflation. Rising gasoline prices tied to the conflict appear to be amplifying economic frustration.
Trendline and Historical Context
Trump’s approval in his second term has trended steadily downward. While he rebounded from 2017 lows to low-40s for much of his first term, the current mid-30s range — if sustained — would place him in rare company among recent presidents. When George W. Bush dropped into the 30s two decades ago, Gallup data show he became the first president to spend a sustained period there since Jimmy Carter. Joe Biden also spent time in the 30s, typically in the high 30s.
What Comes Next
The direction of the Iran conflict and near-term trends in gasoline prices and inflation will probably determine whether this decline is temporary or long-lasting. A credible resolution or an economic turnaround could help reverse the slide; absent that, mid-30s approval would mark a politically precarious position for an incumbent.
Updated: This story has been updated with an additional poll.
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