Vice President JD Vance said he lacks "confidence" that a peaceful end to the Russia-Ukraine war will be reached, warning the outcome remains uncertain despite ongoing negotiations. Envoy Steve Witkoff described recent Miami talks with both delegations as "constructive and productive," but no breakthroughs were announced. Major sticking points include control of Donbas, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, population rights, and how reconstruction and security guarantees would be implemented. The differing tones among U.S. officials underscore how fragile and complex the negotiations remain.
Vance: "I Don't Have Confidence" A Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal Will Be Reached — Talks Remain Fragile
Vice President JD Vance delivered a stark assessment of the Russia-Ukraine war, saying he does not have "confidence" that the conflict — now entering its fourth year — will end in a peaceful settlement.
In an interview with UnHerd published Monday, Vance acknowledged ongoing negotiation efforts but stressed uncertainty about the final outcome:
"We're going to keep on trying to negotiate. And I think that we've made progress, but sitting here today, I wouldn't say with confidence that we're going to get to a peaceful resolution."
He added a measured reflection on prospects:
"I think there's a good chance we will, I think there's a good chance we won't."
Mixed Signals From Washington and Envoys
Vance's remark is one of the more pessimistic public assessments from a senior U.S. official and contrasts with more optimistic tones from others. Senator Marco Rubio recently described a solution as "ways off," while President Donald Trump and U.S. peace envoy Steve Witkoff have expressed greater optimism.
Witkoff, returning from separate meetings in Miami with Ukrainian and Russian delegations, described both sessions as "constructive and productive," though he did not announce any breakthroughs. He emphasized that negotiations will continue and that both Moscow and Kyiv said they remain "committed" to pursuing a deal.
Key Sticking Points
Despite signs of progress, several core issues remain unresolved and could derail any agreement. Vance highlighted the most difficult obstacles:
- Control of Donbas: Ukraine still controls roughly 15% of the Donbas, which President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has proposed placing into a neutral "free economic zone." Russia insists on taking all remaining territory.
- Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant: The status and safety of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant remain a major concern and bargaining point.
- Population Rights and Political Terms: The fate of ethnic Russians in Ukraine, ethnic Ukrainians in Russian-controlled areas, and demands for new elections and language protections complicate negotiations.
- Postwar Security and Reconstruction: Kyiv seeks robust Western security guarantees to deter future aggression, while Moscow rejects the stationing of Western troops on Ukrainian soil. How reconstruction would be financed and governed is also unresolved.
Vance warned that continued fighting could leave Ukrainian forces unable to hold the remaining Donbas territory, making a territorial concession a likely and painful bargaining chip: "So that territorial concession is a significant hold-up in the negotiations — that terrible territorial concession, I should say."
What Each Side Wants
Russian President Vladimir Putin has demanded sweeping concessions to address what he calls the "root causes" of the conflict, including guarantees Ukraine will never join NATO, elections that could replace Zelenskyy, and recognized protections for the Russian language in Ukraine. Kyiv's priority remains strong, Article-5-like security guarantees from the West to protect against future offensives.
The White House pointed to Witkoff's description of the Miami meetings as the latest step in the talks. Vance's office did not expand on his interview comments.
