Communist Front‑Runner vs. Far‑Right Rivals: Chile’s Election Hinges on Crime and Migration

Polarized race as security and migration dominate voters' concerns

Chile heads into a sharply divided presidential election featuring eight candidates and a tight contest between the political extremes. Leading the polls is Jeannette Jara, a 51‑year‑old former labor minister and longtime member of the Communist Party, who has sought to distance herself from the unpopular leftist administration of President Gabriel Boric. On the right, ultraconservative José Antonio Kast and libertarian‑leaning Johannes Kaiser have energized voters with hardline proposals on immigration and public security.

Who’s running and what they promise

Jeannette Jara is campaigning on boosting domestic production, protecting workers’ rights and raising the minimum wage, while acknowledging acute public safety concerns. To address insecurity she has proposed expanding prison capacity, increasing law‑enforcement personnel and strengthening border controls with improved technology. Jara has publicly signaled a willingness to distance herself from her party and the Boric administration to broaden her appeal.

José Antonio Kast, founder of the Republican Party, is the principal conservative challenger. Often compared by analysts to former U.S. President Donald Trump for his rhetoric and positions, Kast calls for tightened border controls and has proposed deporting roughly 300,000 people who entered Chile irregularly. He opposes abortion rights and same‑sex marriage. Reporting by the Associated Press previously said Kast’s German‑born father had ties to the Nazi party; Kast rejects that characterization and says his father was conscripted into the military. His party was contacted for comment.

Johannes Kaiser, a former YouTuber turned lawmaker, has courted a more hardline audience with free‑market and austerity proposals and tougher punishments for criminals. Kaiser has suggested extreme measures for migrants with criminal records, including deportation to foreign detention facilities, and broke from the Republican Party in 2024 to form a new right‑wing grouping tied to libertarian ideas. As he put it in an interview, his campaign positions himself even further to the right of Kast.

Security, immigration and the path forward

Insecurity is a top issue for many Chilean voters: the National Institute of Statistics reports that the number of crime victims has risen steadily since 2021. All major candidates emphasize tougher measures on crime, but their prescriptions differ sharply and voters must weigh tradeoffs between law‑and‑order approaches and social and economic priorities.

“The fight against organized crime, criminal gangs and drug trafficking is central,” said Luz Araceli González, a professor of international relations at Tecnológico de Monterrey. “Many Chileans feel besieged and are demanding concrete security solutions.”

Under Chilean law, if no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote, the top two finishers will face a runoff on December 14. Polls show Jara narrowly leading the first round, but analysts warn a unified right could pose a tougher challenge in a second round. Political analyst Guillermo Holzmann noted that many voters no longer identify strictly with left or right and are prioritizing perceived effective solutions—particularly on security.

The election outcome will shape whether Chile pursues a renewed left‑leaning agenda or a turn to more conservative policies focused on border control and tougher criminal justice measures.